JERSEY’S house prices will continue to rise in the long term because of supply and demand, despite the UK market slowing down.
Estate agents and financial houses believe that the credit crunch will not affect the Island in the same way it has in the UK because Jersey has a different economy, full employment, and is a nice place where people want to live.
Roger Trower of Broadlands, speaking in response to the release of the latest house price index figures compiled by the States Statistics Unit, believes that prices will continue to rise.
‘Jersey is a low tax area, a good place to live and bring up children,’ he said. ‘It has all those positives. I think the market will stabilise but it won’t go down. There is still a lack of supply into the market which will continue to ensure that prices will rise.’
10 Article Comments
Hi,
To respond to Roger Trower of Broadlands, with the greatest respect since when has a Jersey Estate Agent ever told Jersey prices are going down…. !
Have you read the national papers probably not, (average age in Jersey is a mighty 49 yrs old abit like bournemouth! Ireland for example is 24 yrs old), why do Jersey A-H qualies, who works in the finance industry see CV’s of local staff on at least 40K - 60k a year looking for positions and no positions available, work it out…. the finance industry every one knows is 2 yrs behind the UK and going to head the same way, happened in the 90’s certainly will happen this time with new variables.
You may be one of 7 angry men however people have worked it out they are better off living in England, France or Ireland or Europe. FT Saturday, for example no 1 Million mortgages available anymore how you going to prop up the market now in Jersey, add on GST, 20% tax, prices getting off the bloody rock, Jersey Frank Walker Media.
Also, by the way yes children under the age of 3 great for Jersey not really, (maternity leave a joke over here, recent media…. marvelous news not) but what about prices of overseas University fees, private UK education, holidays off the rock work it out … the rest of us have. The only industry (7 Dwarfs) saying anything positive are estate agents … I wonder why do you!… ! Why not say something factual like the stats at the Royal Court of houses going through sale ……why not publish that !!!!!!… and lets see the maths !!
The 70’s and 80’s are gone, wake up estate agents over here and get real for your own sake and don’t try to prop up the market with transparent views Jersey is alright Jack ….. your not !
With Respect written by somebody who was Jersey born after 1970….with useless A-H qualies and thinking of leaving asap..
Signed by the real views of Jersey who don’t stick their heads in the sand and are leaving and by the way if your that pretentious most of us are A-H qualified who are planning on leaving …. as if you give a toss anyway !!!
Well done peter@hotmail.com
You have voiced the jersey viewer you have reached the Jersey point of view by the sounds of it.
….Dont forget that first time buyers will have stamp duty on top. The limit is £300,000. What can a family buy for less than that?
The real issue for this little island is that of peak oil. being a haven for rich old people people in the future will be no good. You have to deal now with the energy crises that will hit you very soon. You have the great ability for wind power. but you need to start now. if you do not then most property on this little rock in the next 10 years will be worth nothing. you also need to make moves on restarting your own self sufficency of food. post peak oil you will have very few tourists, so start now if you want your homes to be worth anything. if you are the few that ubderstood what i just said then contact me. naeemmetrx@aol.com. if not keep your head in the sand and good luck
Hi,
I currently reside in the UK and am seriously considering persuing a role with a Jersey Telco driving sales into the financial sector. I understand they have uniques and that it is Jersey based so I will need to relocate to Jersey.
With x 3 Children 17, 14, and 8. What am I potentially letting myself in for and what should I be doing for a succesful move to Jersey given that I should?
How much is Rental? initially for myself only, and then 6 months or so later for my wife and children to follow? And how much is accomodation, say 4 bedroomed in a nice location? What can I expect in terms of eductaion for them all? and where in the S.E. England do most Jersey kids go in terms of University education.
Any help in the above areas of concern would be very much appreciated.
Kind regards
Mike
Michael Gregory
I am Jersey Born, have a very good job and I was considering buying property here but the price’s are just criminal. A two bedroom rabbit hut here for £350k?? No thank you! I am in the process of moving out of this overpriced Island, the GST has put the final nail in the coffin for me. Ive worked my whole life and get nothing in return for it. It really makes my blood boil hearing about a women with kids who lives in a 3 bedroom house with a huge garden, the states paying per month towards this property, she doesnt pay doctors fees, doesn’t work, getting allowances and maintenance to live of. How can people get away using the system like this. I will get next to nothing when I go on maternity leave why? Because I have a decent job!!! It must be great to be able to take a year of work!!!! This Island is going down the pan, its about time they start looking after people who actually pay their taxes and keep this island going for their pointless roundabouts here and there or their awful Jersey cows to place in west centre……I cant wait to leave.
so many comments, where do i start!
estate agents are unregulated (even in the uk!)and work on commission so i would never trust one.
fair value for property - a house provides shelter, always did, always will. nothing more than that. and it doesnt matter whether you rent or buy you receive the same utility from it. it should therefore be valued based on the rent buying it will save you. i currently pay 20k. discounting future rentals at 7% gives a value of 286k. its currently valued over 500k.
to show how mad the price is, interest alone at current 7% std variables rates is 35k!
the rent already reflects the tax advantages and average wage in jresey since its a market rent. perhaps you think rents should increase? well they’d need to go through the roof and with hte housing quals situation in jersey there won’t be many people left in jersey to work in finance let alone the bars and restaurants.
7% is the average historic mortgage rate. rates over recent years have been low due to both low inflation and competition in the mortgage market. rates are now beginning to reflect default risk again. there is no credit crunch, rather we had a credit binge. money was almost free in real terms.
low inflation over the previous 10 years came from asian expansion and trade enabling cheap imports and creating competition and immigration keeping wage demands low. now we have 10% inflation in china and the poles are going home. inflation will therefore climb over the next few years.
jersey is a special case - i love this one! this was said of so many places in the uk. take greater london for example. its a finite space so should it be priced at a premium like jersey? should it never fall? define a finite space and sure you restrict supply by definition. jersey is not getting smaller so prices are not pushed up over time using the restricted supply argument.
you must also consider demand. who knows whether jersey unemployment will climb, GST increase over the years, the finance industry tax rececipts fall? no-one knows but i would say the risk is on the downside over the next 5 years.
oh and by the way, the property i live in should be an infinite price on the above logic since there can only be space enough for 1 property on it! the ultimate case of restricted supply shows the logic is false. there are always alternative properties elsewhere if the price is too high.
jersey prices should be more than the uk. the tax situation alone should ensure this. add to that the average wage, low crime and you have an underpinning for house prices. but to say they will not go down is a closed mind.
and whilse im here, the recent states proposal i read in the JEP to help low income first time buyers is poor. it effectively loans poor people money against which they have to put up their home as security. sure it helps prop up the housing market but it encourages poor people to take on financial risk. and they are in the worst position to do this. just increase benefits to the poor and if they decide to save for a deposit thats up to them.
the reason why the poor cannot afford to buy is becuase they are priced out. so give them money dont lend it to them. what sort of a society do we leave in now?
and my forecast for 2010? i expect unemployment and inflation. a long period of saving and risk aversion. after interest rates hit a high in 2009/2010 they will fall to near zero as in japan. but by then people will not consider buying a house as an ideal. it will be considered a financial risk as it should be. hopefully also we will all respect each other for our differences rather than trying to step on each other to make ourselves feel better.
I AM GLADE I LEFT TWO YEARS BECAUSE IT SOUNDS LIKE ITS GETTING WORSE BY THE DAY AS A JERSEYMAN WE WEAR AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PILE.IN AUSTRALIA WE GET MONEY BACK FOR THE TAX MAN BUT IN JERSEY THEY JUST SCREW MORE MONEY OUT OF YOU i WAS STILL GETTING TAX FORMS SET TO AUSTRALIA TO FILL FOR THE PAST TWO YEAR TRY TO TAX ME ,MAY BE THEY SHOULD SEND TIME LOOKING FOR THE TAX DOGERS AND HELPING THE JERSEY PEOPLE SO THEY DONT HAVE TO LEAVE WHERE THEY WEAR BORN.iVE HAVE BEEN CONTACTED BY 3 OTHER JERSEY PEOPLE LIVING IN AUSTRALIA THAT I WHEN TO SCHOOL WITH JUST TO SHOW THEY ARE LEAVING IN DROVES.
I moved to Australia several years ago as sadly we knew that we could never afford to buy a property in Jersey. Many friends of my generation (20’s-30’s) are doing the same, as Jersey has nothing to offer us. I cannot comprehend how difficult it must be for young families to make ends meet, with ridiculous mortgages, high childcare costs, increasing oil prices and now GST. The states really do need to pull their fingers out and do something about the state of the Island, and make it more attractive for people to stay, or come back. Instead they are wasting away money on new pointless roads??? A Jersey Eye??? I thought we hit rock bottom with the steam boat near the weighbridge, but it appears not. I used to be proud to say that I was from Jersey, and what a great place is, i am no longer proud but embarrassed and annoyed when I see what a state the Island has become, and can only begin to imagine what it will be like in years to come.
House Prices will keep on rising - what a ridiculous headline. For whose benefit is this article written? Are people getting a little bit twitchy with their big mortgages, wondering if they’ve made the right decision to by at the top (for now) of the market?
Seriously I think there’s a lack research done on this. I think if Jo actually investigated why house prices have shot up 30% in a year, who’s been buying, how have they been buying (mortgage/cash) etc then the article would be more meaningful and would help those poor souls, who are stuck not knowing whether they should stay in the island or not, by providing some proven information to make a decision.
Lets face it, if prices continue to go up, then families will not be able to afford to live here. They’ll relocate, find other jobs, get great big houses (for the fraction of Jsy prices) and send their kids to uni for a lot less money. (I focus on this demograohic, because I am part of it and seriously considering leaving the island.)
So that is waning demand. The other thing that could affect demand is the availability of credit. It has been common for institutions(lending within Jersey) to lend 6-10 times someone’s salary to buy somewhere. I don’t believe you can trust banks to follow this logic, particularly if they sniff a change in demand characteristics, peoples ability to repay (energy costs, taxes etc) and a basic reevaluation of their credit risk practises. I would say this excessive type of lending should be more tightly regulated by the States and I think will have to happen if things take a turn for the worse in Jersey.
That said, demand could be stimulated by other means, such as lowering quallies. Now if there is anyone out there who has been living here for 10-13 years in bedsits etc, who has a nice nest egg to invest in a pokey house in Jersey, then good luck to you. But if you are thinking of taking out a whopping mortgage, just remember the people whose house you are buying might just be laughing their socks off as they run off to Spain with all the cash congratulating themselves, they sold at the right time. At the end of the day, if there were no quallies, then the island would be open to all, so free market rules apply, only the wealthy willing to live in a “nice place” will be able to live here, there will be noone to work in the finance industry, so that will cave in on itself. That could possiby mean an end to low taxes…good bye wealthy residents.
So Jo, I think there is some more mileage in this article yet too come. Don’t just listen to estate agents, listen to the people, because ultimately we are the players in the market. Estate Agents are sales people. When we were looking to buy, we told an estate agent we were thinking of buying a FTB house at Mont a l’Abbe. They told us to avoid it like the plague, becuase they would not go up in value, because of the states housing allocation on the plot. The price at the time was £260,000. Guess what - they’ve nearly doubled.