JERSEY is not heading towards recession, the Treasury Minister said today after the news that the economies of Guernsey and the UK are going into decline.
Senator Terry Le Sueur said that there was, as yet, no evidence to suggest that Jersey would suffer the severe downturns which were being forecast elsewhere. He said: ‘As far as we are concerned, defining whether we are in recession is quite difficult. The report published by the Fiscal Policy Panel in September suggested that the Island could look forward to continued economic growth, but at a reduced level.
‘The panel are updating their report during November in advance of the Budget and, although the economic situation continues to be uncertain, I have not yet recei-ved any information to alter the opinion that we continue to enjoy smaller economic growth.’
Dougie Peedle, the States economic adviser (pictured), agreed that there was no indication that Jersey was sliding into recession.
Article posted on 11th November, 2008 - 3.00pm
35 Article Comments
So define ‘Recession’!
‘Continue to grow but at a slower pace? But with no idea what is going to happen’
Thats like giving a weather forecast:
“Dry periods with a risk of rain, light winds with scattered snow showers, gusting at times with rain becoming more frequent and winds blowing from the NE F7, with long sunny periods”
I think we’ve covered everything!
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If the Senator would like to take a walk around St Helier he will find that it is quiet for this time of year.
He could chat to a few shopkeepers and restaurant owners, trade is on the quiet side and bookings are not flooding in.
Try phoning a few small builders, a lot of them are looking for work at the moment.
Lloyds TSB, Barclays, HSBC are all looking at making economies worldwide to rebuild their finances.
I reckon you may be able to see what is happening about Easter.
At the moment it is all intelligent guesswork and I for one would not stake my life savings on it!
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More evidence that our decision makers live with their heads buried in the sand. Do this lot really believe that we will be the only place in the world exempt from the turmoil? Seemingly so and it sends shivers down my spine.
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Just look at today’s other headline ‘Building projects are put on hold’. Not a recession, but we are on the brink of recession.
A fiscal boost for the Jersey economy? Slash GST? Just an idea?
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No recession! This is why we have started to see shops close down and people being made redundant. The housing market slump and the building trade grinding to a halt. Does the Minister ever speak to the man on the street?
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1. Senator Terry Le Sueur said “that there was, as yet, no evidence to suggest that Jersey would suffer the severe downturns which were being forecast elsewhere”.
2. “As far as we are concerned, defining whether we are in recession is quite difficult”.
Priceless!! If you do not know how to recognise it, how can you say its not going to happen??
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Ladies and gents i give you our next chief minister……God help us..rs
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Does this guy live on another planet? Does he actually read what’s going on in the world?! Unbelievable what’s happening in London and around the whole world. Sorry to say it, but Jersey should batten down the hatches now. House prices are going to fall from their present crazy levels and the good days will most likely come to an end for a sustained period of time (2-3 years)…
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If there is no recession then can we all have 6.4% pay increases please?
You know when Senator Le Sueur opens his mouth ‘you could not make it up’.
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God help what is left of Jersey!!
Can Terry Le Sueur seriously be in a position of power? He holds the position of Treasury Minister and still can’t recognise an impending recession when it is slapping him round the chops!!
He seriously needs to get out and talk to small business owners - see if they agree with his blinkered vision of life!
With his obvious lack of understanding of the current economic climate how can anyone be surprised that he managed to “forget” to take 4 years of economic growth into account when considering the need for GST!!
All I can say is please don’t let him anywhere near the development of the Financial District.
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What a load of rowlocks!
The fact that you can’t get a mortgage clearly doesn’t effect the ” Minister” who is apparantly due to become the first Minister, the job of course pays the “minimum wage.
When is this rubbish going to stop from people who, ought to know better.
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RECESSION:St Helier is quiet on Sunday to Friday nights,with pubs and clubs changing names to try and attract buisness.With so many working in finance (all our eggs in one basket)with huge mortgages.People can not afford to go out with x mas on the way.
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A dangerous statement to make. I expect that if they don’t believe its coming they are not making plans to combat it, which is dangerous.
Just to confirm their ignorance they are injecting £1mio into tourism, just when no one will be able to afford to travel. Better wait when the economy picks up and people start travelling again
Why should Jersey be isolated from the rest of the world? Banks are suffering and staff will be laid off, does jersey really believe it won’t happen there.
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To coin a phrase ‘You plonker Rodney!’ or should I say Terry. ‘This time next year we will be eer… bust!’. This man is not fit for purpose. If as muted in the UK press UK VAT is dropped by 5% to stimulate the economy will our ‘glorious’ leaders do anything to counteract the negative effects that will without doubt be felt here? I dont think so. £1m into Tourism, please? Too little too late, a panic knee jerk by them in the big house over a nice spot of lunch somewhere. Probably overseas using the vast amount of Airmiles amassed from our Taxes paying BA for first class travel. Need I say more…well I could but wont! Yeah Terry what Recession, just take off those rose tinted specs and take a step into reality.
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Good old Terry Le Sueur, still living in his bubble and half buried in the sand ! It is blatently obvious that despite what all his figures and reports and graphs say this island WILL be, and already is being affected by the recession. OPEN YOUR EYES - you may not be affected but for some of us the worry, stress and struggle is VERY real!
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Maybe Senator Le Sueur should swap places with one of the Ostreiches in a zoo. His head is obviously in the sand!
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Excuse me?, did I read right????
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How condescending of sen le sueur to talk to the people of Jersey like that! We watch tv, we listen to the radio and we talk to our friends in business so we all know that the recession is global and has already started to affect Jersey.
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What Terry means is that HE and his 11k tax-deal mates won’t be affected greatly by a recession. He does not have to worry about paying the next lecky bill.
He wasn’t talking to, or about, the rest of us.
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Two of my friends have been let go from their jobs as a direct result of a down turn in spending by the public and corporations. They and many others are struggling to make ends meet and to find new Jobs. To say “recession, not in Jersey” is a Joke and a horrifying insight into our soon to be (un-elected by the people) Chief Minister.
While he may have the luxury of job security as the island will always need a Treasury Minister recession or no recession. He may want to get back in contact with reality as the recession has already started for hundreds if not thousands of islanders who will soon be making their way to social security through no fault of their own.
On another note you only have to look at how empty town is for November, shops hoping for a good Christmas to make up for an appalling year are in for a huge disappointment, thanks to an uncapped GST on goods and a GLOBAL recession. If anything the unfavourable taxes by Terry towards the middle and lower class, and ludicrous decisions made by the rest of our government started a recession in Jersey long before the global credit crunch.
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Maybe this will help our Finance Minister and future Chief Minister…A recession is a contraction phase of the business cycle, or “a period of reduced economic activity, defined more broadly as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP growth, real personal income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.
Few clues Terry - read your JEP….
- House Sales lowest in 6 years
- Building projects put on hold
- Tomato industry ceases
- Cut flower division ceases
- Tourism figures down
- local non-finance businesses go into liquidation other non-finance companies cutting jobs
- Air routes reduced due to GLOBAL recession
From normal person not getting paid lots to work out statistics or run our economy and government
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The only thing the people at the top are interested in is looking after the rich. This is my Island I am a Jersey Bean so why do I feel as if no one is looking after my interests.
Is it time for A REVOLUTION just like in France, voting doesn’t seem to work. No one wants to listen to us, GST comes to mind. We must be just school children who are to be told what to do and what we can have. Do these people not understand they are there to represent us? They are supposed to do what we want, we are there employers. I am not proud to be a Jersey man and I beleive people must look at us and think what a bunch of thick o’s. I have come up with the answer, but it means I must leave my parents and Jersey to live somewhere where the govenment cares about me and not just them selfs. Shame because Jersey is a beautiful place, sorry was!
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To “Q”- well put!! The problem with having an extremely wealthy man at the helm is that they don’t have to live in the real world like the ordinary mortals.When Frank or Terry are hosting a lavish dinner party or cocktail party I doubt they send the little woman out to Iceland to see what “three for a fiver” party food is on offer.Although I no longer live in Jersey I have family/friends there and so I watch with interest in what happens on the island and it certainly seems to be heading in to recession like everywhere else-possibly the effects won’t be quite so damaging in the long term but who knows?
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Not only is the global recession having its effects but, soon Jersey’s Tax haven status will be pulled from under it’s feet!
Millions are already being withdrawn by worried tax avoidence clients and being invested elswhere!
We will soon have more than just a recession to deal with when the US and EU fully set about sorting us out!
If you can leave the island do it cos it aint gonna be fun!
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surely the jep has a duty to stop printing this nonsense? i mean there are people in the world who insist that the moon is made of cheese but you don’t give them the time of day! sadly there are people that believe the deluded bilge that comes from the states spin department just because its in the paper… come on jep
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Rio … not sure where your info comes from, but I know bankers that are extremely busy at the moment dealing with new customers’ millions being deposited in Jersey.
It is all about confidence though and I’m afraid that we will talk ourselves into a recession unessarily if we’re not careful. In this sense, I think Mr Le Sueur is taking the correct approach. Talk the figures, don’t speculate publicly, be prepared for the worst privately.
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If bankers are happily hovering fresh millions in to deposit accounts in Jersey and earning lovely fat bonuses in doing so maybe they could pop out to the high street and spend a bit of it. Or if they are really busy they could send their spouse or maybe the maid.
St Helier is dead for this time of year, six weeks to go until Christmas and the car parks, streets and shops are not full.
Shops really need to make money now to get through the dog days of January, February and March.
While you are at it you could book your Xmas party at your favourite restaurant!
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It’s Time Senator Le Sueur went he is out of touch with life in jersey, he has already done a lot of damage to this island. I just wish he would step down, he is too old.
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Suspend GST for 12 months. Suspend stamp duty on all properties under £1m, also for 12 months. Raise income tax allowance thresholds to £25,000. Retain mortgage tax relief for a further three years. Do this all now and we could conceivably avoid recession. Then we can sort out the shortfalls when the economy recovers. Anyone with confidence in our long term economic prosperity wouldn’t hesitate to do these things immediately so what does it say if El Tel doesn’t?
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I think they are trying to use these headlines to avoid what the rest of the word is about to agree on. Tax Cuts!!
Mr Le Sueur & co a prime examples of in there own fairyland to know how the real world works. Get them out!!
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Just crunch the numbers Terry.
You are an accountant not a statesman,take the hint.
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dont worry about gst just wait till you get your next tax bill . 20 means 20 anybody can run this island with a huge pot of cash.
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“defining whether we are in recession is quite difficult”
Mmmm, for someone in his position it shouldn’t be!
There is a clear definition for ‘recession’ and while a man in his position cannot say that we are in one until we meet that definition, he can be honest about where we are potentially headed.
I understand the concerns about causing a recession through worrying people, but unfortunately the horse has bolted on that one and we just have to hope people will be sensible.
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Well Leah it is difficult to say whether Jersey is in recession, If you look in the papers and see all the jobs that are on offer then maybe you might think twice… ok so some businesses are not doing so good but that has always been the case in St Helier due to high rents etc… and the finance industry is doing fairly well So maybe Jersey is one of the few places that is going to be ok.
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The retail sector in Jersey is in recession already. Have a quick poll of shopkeepers and you will find that turnover is at best static and in many cases falling.
Small builders and decorators likewise, people are not moving, doing more DIY etc.
Finance is OK at the moment, but banks worldwide are going to shed staff by the thousand over the next few years.
The big question is how many ‘Sorry to see you go’ letters are heading for the Jersey offices.
If Bergerac is right then not many and everything will be fine. But 2 - 3,000 would result in a truly painful experience.
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