BY 2035, Jersey could have a population of almost 96,000.
Although Chief Minister Terry Le Sueur (pictured) recently said that the Island could support a population of 100,000, he later made it clear that he does not believe that such a level is currently sustainable.
But it has become clear that considerable growth is expected over the next three decades. A briefing document prepared by the States Statistics Unit forecasts that immigration of about 430 individuals, or 200 heads of households, a year – the rate proposed in the draft Strategic Plan – would lead to a population of slightly under 96,000 by 2035.
That figure would be only four per cent lower than the 100,000 alluded to by Senator Le Sueur. The briefing document, which is described as ‘a bullet point outline of the plus-200 inward migration model’, summarises the logic behind present population estimates for the years up to 2065. However, although it says that increases are to be expected in the medium term, the number of residents should fall very slowly after 2035.
Article posted on 23rd February, 2009 - 2.55pm
29 Article Comments
By 2035?? I thought we must have reached that by 2009!!!
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Oh dear, i’d say this was a close estimate of the current population now, let alone in 25 years!
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I think we’re already at that amount.
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OK, but where all these people to work and live? It must be presumed that most if not all these immigrants will want half decent housing schools etc. Camp out in the recently redundant glass houses? More to the point, with both agriculture and tourism in decline, what are the redundant waitresses/waiters and tomato packers to do. Emigrate?
Where is the joined up thinking behind the headline grabbing. Jersey for the Jersey born!
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Let us assume that peak oil eg the maximum that can be pumped out of the ground per year takes place between 2015 and 2020. That is actually an optimistic assumption as a lot of well respected analysts think that it could take place sooner. Also assume that demand in the BRIC ( Brazil, India and China ) countries and elsewhere continues to rise with the consequent effect on fuel prices and we contuinue to be unable to find realistic alternatives.
Jersey produces virtually nothing apart from banking services and you can’t eat or wear those!
The island will face sharply rising prices as the price of fuel and raw materials rises and virtually everything has to be imported at ever rising costs.
I reckon the States will be lucky to maintain the population that we have, let alone increase it under the scenario that I have outlined above.
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Surely saying that the population is already at 96,000 is mere speculation.
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How many of the 96,000 will be unemployed?
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census census census!!!!!!!
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Thankfully, by 2035 my wife, daughter and myself will have emigrated long ago, along with most of the other Jersey people. It will be a ghost town by then, finance will have gone and all that will be left is a crippling welfare bill from all the rubbish that we let in for decades who stayed to breed.
I expect the likes of TLS will be happily retired in a large mansion in Spain.
Roll on 2035!
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What’s going on, were being by people with no sense.
Jersey is full
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terry is having trouble counting again jersey tax payers should buy him a new calculator
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Don’t worry – as every keeps moaning ‘the recession will take care of increasing population numbers’.
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Tobias, it gives me no pleasure to say that I think your thoughts as to the future are quite correct. Not sure where you can go that will be better – the UK?
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I’d say we were well above that already. Maybe 110-120,000. I don’t know where these figurescome from. By 2035 I would expect the population to be nearer 200,000 unless we are lucky and finance go by then.
Yes Jersey is going downhill and has been on the slippery slope since the late 1970’s too much immigration has helped destroy local culture and customs and friendliness of the place. It is nothing but an English county now as far as I am concerned with the resultant problems this brings.
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Tobias… what if the place you emigrate to considers you among their “rubbish that we let in for decades who stayed to breed”?
Adrian, I will admit that in my time here I haven’t found Jersey all that friendly, regularly being served by miserable faces, and many times by someone who doesn’t even acknowledge my presence at their till never mind say the usual pleasantries! Those that I have found friendly and welcoming have all been born here (some are the children of immigrants).
The miserable faces just make me want to ask… why are you here? Is this really a better life? Is it possible you actually moved because of greed, hoping that with money would come happiness?
Money and happiness tend not to go hand in hand.
On a different note, my experience in the UK shows that the people most likely to be nasty to a new wave of immigrants is those that rode the last wave of immigration themselves!
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Come on everyone, these aren’t unwanted immigrants, they’re just friends you haven’t made yet!
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There appears to be people who will moan about everything.
First they moan about dropping res quals to 10 years. You all moan.
They say they will raise the 5 year work rule to 10 years. you all moan.
They say that the population will grow to 100,000 and still you all moan.
Sorry but i am a little confused.
Do you want population control or not?
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I find Jersey people very friendly, but don’t get the same from shop staff who don’t give a damn, who happen to be not local. There is a different attitude to things from the locals and none locals, why is this? I get the feeling that people are mainly coming to Jersey for money and not to make friends or be part of a better community. This is to the detriment of everyone but people just can’t see it. I feel sad for Jersey because it could be so much better.
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adrian you dont get the friendly persons in the shops because they only get minium wage! pay them a real wage and they might smile and say hello. !
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Heres a thought for you Jersey people, you are not Jersey until you are ten, if you take your children off the Island before they have qualified when they come back (without you) they have to live in non quals accomodation!
So when we do the census are the children included?
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Sean – its not about minimum wage – good manners cost nothing (so i was brought up to believe).
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Leah
The ‘rubbish that have stayed here to breed’ that I referred to are the likes you could see lining up to claim their welfare every week along with their Jersey-born-yet-non-English-speaking children. The ones that care not one iota about Jersey or respect our way of life. The sort of people that could not get work back home due to criminal records / lack of skills / laziness etc and chose to stay here due to Jersey being such a soft touch. Due to Jersey having absolutely No entry requirements, there are unfortunately quite a few of those here. They wouldn’t be allowed to set up residence in most civilised places in the world but here in Jersey it seems everyone is welcome regardless not just of colour and creed – which is applaudable – but also regardless of past (mis)conduct and whether they would be a burden or a boon to society. Take a walk through places like Peoples Park after dark and you’ll see exactly what I mean by ‘rubbish’
We have been approved for entry into Canada and we’re just saving up now ready to emigrate. I would hope that the Canadians will not consider us to be rubbish, as unlike the type that I referred to, we strive to bring something to the table rather than just take.
Sorry to harp on but it’s a subject close to my heart, has bothered me to the point that I now intend to leave the island of my ancestors before it gets much worse here.
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Tobias- I wish you the very best of luck with your plans to emigrate and can empathise with your reasons for doing so.We remained in Jersey for too long and am now much happier in rural England where life is peaceful and people around us are happy with their lot.I remain concerned about Jersey however as I have family and friends there and I despair at the thought of how much worse things will become if the population climbs to these levels.Sadly though it seems most of the actual Jersey people (like me) will have gone elsewhere!
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Tobias (22) I totally agree and i don’t even know you, but in feel sad this is the choice you’ve had to make. Canada, however, is a beautiful country and the people are really nice – I really do envy you!
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Tobias – I am 37 Jersey born and lived here all my life. I recently got married and my wife and I are expecting our first child so we thought we need a small first time buyer home….NO chance £450,000 for a box you have got to be kidding. I Love this Island and I would like to stay and bring my child up here but I really feel that this Island has no future and is destroying itself. Jersey cant cope with the amount of people living here at the moment let alone anymore. So its off to the UK for us where we can afford to by a modest home and have a good quality of life. I do not think we are the only local family in this situation but Jersey has nothing to offer anymore other than being a place for the wealthy and the old.
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I find it sad that people with an obvious affinity with the island going back generations are gradually being driven out by greed and over population. Supply and demand says an increase in demand will increase the cost. Unfettered immigration over the last 30 years has caused an explosion in houseprices as has the allowing in of so many rich people and J-cat etc which have driven up prices beyond what they should be. This is affecting the majority who do not have 6 figure pay packets to go with these house prices.
I lay the blame at the states door for encouraging economic growth at all costs. It is costing us dear in over pricing whether of goods, travel, or property. Taxes are now following suit. Eventually at this rate the island will be the domain of the rich only, as the rest are forced out, or seek low paid work and live by subsistance means. I believe that Jersey does not really want its indigenious population as from a business perspective it is better to have cheaper migrant labour which is easier to manage as it will put up with worse conditions. I believe that Jersey people are seen as too expensive to employ now so by allowing massive immigration those in charge can reap even bigger profits.
Also from another perspective I believe that those at the top of the pile like problems lower down as it help them keep control easier as whilst everyone is having a go at the others e.g. immigrant versus local they miss the reality that they are both being used by someone else. These are my own views on what is going on over here and people are free to think differently.
I do hope for a better future but I can’t see it happening until the population pressure is eased by, for example, the removal of finance and its attendent paraphenalia.
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I’m 19 and have lived here all my life. There is nothing for me here. Life is too hard in Jersey and it’s not improving – it’s only getting worse. This island will soon be filled to the brim with a population who don’t give a feck for the island and the people on it – I don’t want to be here when this happens.
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Tobias, what welfare queues? Only local residents are welcome to benefits. The majority of people I know that are either in housing or abusing the welfare system are jersey-born. You sir, are are operating on double-standards!! You complain about so-called “rubbish” moving to Jersey; yet, you believe that you are perfectly entitled to move to Canada where you will be using their system and taking their jobs. I just hope for your sake that the Canadians don’t have the same opinion as you.
People emigrate to make a better life for themselves and work hard. So why is it alright for you to take up an opportunity, but not for others? I just hope that you are fortunate enough to never have to take advantage of the Canadian welfare system.
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Adrian, I have to agree with you. We need work permits or visas and diversification. If the days of the finance industry are numbered, whilst it is still our main industry we should take this opportunity to start building up alternative industries. As the interest rates are so low, investors are looking for somewhere to place their money that will give them a better return, so this is a good time to be setting up something new.
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