Emergency measures in place for flu pandemic
Saturday 14th June 2008, 9:56AM BST.
DETAILS of crisis measures needed in the event of a catastrophic flu pandemic – including the closure of schools and the provision of emergency hospitals, vaccination centres and mortuaries – have been revealed for the first time.
The information was disclosed this week as members of a States steering group set up to plan for a flu pandemic were questioned by the Health and Social Services Scrutiny panel. The group say that it is a matter of when, and not if, a pandemic sweeps across the globe and they predict that one will strike Jersey within three to eight years.
Dr Ivan Muscat, the consultant microbiologist at the Hospital and a member of the group, said that the hospital would be unable to cope if casualty figures were as high as predicted. They anticipate that 35,000 Islanders would be affected. Of those, 1,200 are likely to have to be hospitalised during the four weeks that the first wave of flu swept through the Island.
However, Dr Muscat said that there were only 250 beds at the Hospital, so other emergency medical centres would have to be ready.
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Dont worry as Frank as booked us a flight to Bermuda.
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It’s great that a steering group is working on pandemic flu plans, but the numbers they are using are wildly optimistic.
If there are 35,000 Islanders infected and 1,200 hospitalized, the percentage of infected people hospitalized is only 3.4%.
Unfortunately that would be very mild for pandemic influenza.
The 1918 influenza pandemic had at least a 2% fatality rate, and the H5N1 virus that is spreading now had a worldwide fatality rate (with good medical care and antiviral drugs) of over 60%.
It’s daunting to plan for a really severe influenza pandemic because there aren’t enough resources to care for the number of expected patients. But it’s far better to be realistic and make plans that do the most good with the resources available.
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