The dangers of uncertainty

Tuesday 9th September 2008, 3:00PM BST.

HOW many times should a government change its mind? It depends, I guess, on how many people will be adversely affected by the reversal of the decision.

Taking GST as a case in point, it is probable that the majority of the population (who are, of course, also voters) will be jolly pleased that the States have decided that GST should not be added to ‘basic’ foods.

It is also probable that the retailers who were pulling out all the stops at the start of the year to comply with the new GST requirements will now be pulling their hair out instead. They are also potential voters, of course, but a relatively small minority.

Given that the golden rule of good government / business relations seems to be certainty, certainty and more certainty, this latest climbdown could have one of two effects. It could, for example, restore public confidence in the Island’s ministerial system of government just at a time when it needs it most – election time.

On the other hand, it could extinguish altogether any faith in said ministerial system of government, to the point where the very idea of electing yet another 53 States Members for however many years becomes of peripheral interest to keeping heads above the water during a period of recession.

Perhaps that is why, to date at least, there has been relatively little noise from the Jersey business community about political intent.

CHANGES of heart have been arriving in bucket loads in the past week. Most notable is the Council of Ministers’ decision to provide free nursery care for all, reversing a States decision made less than a year ago.

No one could dispute the advantage of providing free nursery provision. In fact, for such a relatively wealthy Island it seems positively grotesque that up until now some parents have had to pay to send their child to nursery.

Why, then, has it taken our elected politicians so long to prise their heads out of the sand and realise that children under five are indeed the future of the economy? Okay, said politicians may not be in power when these toddlers eventually start earning their own livings, but surely the good Senators, Deputies and Constables are not all so blinkered as to care about Jersey only for the duration of their own term of office?

From a business standpoint, the argument could be taken further. Jersey has for some years now boasted one of the highest working populations of women in Europe. Indeed, Jersey needs these women, because without them the number of workers available to boost vital economic growth would be woefully inadequate.

However – and despite the willing help provided by many fathers -– many of those women will be taking the main responsibility for childcare. So why not help the economy by providing further support, not only during school hours but also in the vital hours before and after the school day?

As it stands at the moment, working women in Jersey still have to make painful choices about whether to juggle childcare and working life, or take time out and cope with the financial deficit. For many there is no choice at all, if a grossly inflated mortgage is to be paid. Some mothers might prefer to work part-time, but the financial costs of childcare would then exceed the financial gain they make from their employment.

If politicians really value the working population – and the potential of attracting mothers back into the workplace – they will need to think harder about how that economic benefit could be assisted.

At the time of writing there is still no legislation to protect the right to maternity leave, let along equality in the workplace. Free nursery places for all is certainly a start – but it is no more than just that, and long overdue.
SOME interesting conclusions have been drawn in recent days about the way we will all be working in the future. According to technology giant Microsoft, office tower blocks will be disappearing from city skylines as more of us work from home.

Up to a fifth of the scientists asked said that head offices would become ‘redundant’ in the next 25 years in favour of ‘remote working’. In their place will sprout multi-purpose spaces with apartments, shops and cafés, roof gardens and exhibitions.

Apparently around 13 per cent of Londoners already work away from the office for two days a week. Another prediction is that work and social life will become much more interwoven, as people will tend to work more often into the evening and commute during off-peak hours.

Given that Microsoft is of course responsible for creating the very technology that will make this possible, their conclusions are entirely predictable. But it does seem that we are now entering a different kind of environment, one where energy conservation will begin to dictate the way we work, the time we work and the places we use to work in.

Looking at the Waterfront development from this perspective, I have to say, makes considerably more sense, in some ways, and considerably less sense in others.

THE credit crunch has bitten so hard into the Jersey tomato industry that there is now very little left on the plate. The news that the tomato growers will no longer be able to sell their produce to the UK supermarkets is a salutory lesson for those who have forgotten how dependent this Island has become on the global economy.