A FEW weeks ago a Jersey firm of commercial estate agents sent out a press release about the state of the retail market.

It said: ‘The current shopping centre development boom across Europe is set to continue despite the credit crunch, according to the latest report by a global real estate consultant.

‘It is interesting to see that the trend is also continuing in Jersey, with the additional retail space planned for the Esplanade Quarter and the Liberty Wharf development.’

Contrast this statement (from someone hoping to boost their own business by encouraging market confidence) with the latest from the British Retail Consortium, which last week predicted a ‘nerve-wracking’ Christmas for retailers. Their conclusions are based on figures which show the first successive monthly fall in overall sales for 14 years.

Some of that will no doubt be due to the expectation of the 2.5% cut in VAT in the UK.

Some, too, could be due to an increase in sales over the internet rather than the high street, although the BRC say that even online shopping growth slumped last month, from 16.6% to 9.5%, year on year.

In Jersey the optimists on the Jersey Chamber of Commerce retail committee say early signs are promising, with shoppers turning out in droves for late-night opening and festive entertainment. And it has to be said that the Fête dé Noué programme this year is up there with the best, with street entertainment, fairy lights and lanterns enough in themselves to encourage even the most reluctant out into the cold.

Whether the number of bodies in King and Queen Street translates into sales is another question entirely.
Even if purchases are being won, the number of early knock-down price sales suggest that retailers could be looking at lower margins. As in the UK, heavy discounting could fail to boost demand.

Come New Year, what effect is this likely to have on the Island’s mini shopping development boom down on the Esplanade?

The answer will be on the till rolls.

THE motor trade has had a particularly torrid time of it lately. On Thursday Toyota announced that it was slashing sales targets in the UK by 18%, in view of nosediving demand. For 2009 Japan’s top car maker is predicting ‘a prolonged slump’ in both the US and Europe, according to business publication Nikkei.

On Friday news from the US car market was no better. The £9 million government rescue package to bail out Chrysler, General Motors and Ford failed the union approval test, on the basis that job cuts would be inevitable.

In the event job cuts will no doubt be inevitable, given that Chrysler and General Motors say they are weeks from collapse and Ford, although better placed, faces an uncertain survival in the longer term.
Closer to home, anecdotal evidence strongly suggests that car sales in Jersey are distinctly less buoyant than in the recent past. With financial services industry bonuses unlikely to reach the levels of yesteryear, New Year sales seem unlikely to get any better. Rumours of redundancies abound.

Inevitably there will be an increase in the small ads as gas guzzler owners realise the cost of propelling their dream vehicles around an Island where 40 mph is as fast as you’re gonna go.

THE relative increase in internet sales is hitting the book trade hard. HMV, which also owns Waterstone’s, reported last week that in the five weeks to the end of November the books market had seen ‘a marked deterioration’. This is on top of half-year results showing a 3.1% drop in sales.

There used to be a time when Jersey shoppers had a choice of book shops, including smaller emporiums like the Printed Word in West’s Centre. Then along came Ottakers and swallowed up the de Gruchy’s book department and then Waterstone’s took over from Ottakers.

About two months ago, very quietly – and without being courteous enough to answer inquiries from this journalist – Waterstone’s removed their books from the back of de Gruchy’s. Now we have only one choice. Or the internet. Or the public library, which in times of recession is very useful indeed.

OH, the power of big business. One minute there’s a little island, minding its own affairs, two pubs and a hotel, visitors toing and froing, no politics to speak of. The next minute along come two wealthy businessmen, set up some business interests, couple of hotels here, couple of other things there, build up their property stakes, start to make some political noises about the way the island is being run.

The all of a sudden the small island is all over the national news. The businessmen are pulling out because they don’t approve of the way the islanders have voted in their first general election ever.
What a lark. What a Sark lark.

I might pay it a visit next year. I quite liked the two pubs, especially in the rain.