THERE is no doubt that the new year which begins tomorrow will present Jersey, in common with the rest of the world, with more than the usual share of tough challenges.

It is also true, however, that as midnight chimes and we count our blessings, the resulting list will still be longer here than in many other communities also facing the uncertainty, confusion and worry created by the astonishingly swift decline of the economy.

No one can predict what will happen in 2009. In a bewilderingly short space of time, the once unthinkable has become the commonplace and there is general agreement that worse is to come, with Jersey far from immune. For individuals, this severe economic downturn may translate into jobs that are harder to find and easier to lose. For households, it will mean eroded savings and reduced expectations. For businesses, it will mean a struggle to maintain sales, cash flows and credit ratings. For government, here as elsewhere, it will mean smaller revenues and a bigger benefits bill.

Grim as that general prospect may be, Jersey enters the new year in better shape than many communities to survive the effects of global recession. Economically speaking, our relatively high levels of affluence will provide a temporary cushion for many, as will the public reserves built up in the exchequer over recent years. It may not put the proverbial bread on the table, but it is also worth remembering that we live in an extraordinarily beautiful place, many of whose pleasures can be enjoyed for nothing and regardless of the vagaries of the economy.

Beyond those elements of practical comfort, we can look to more abstract reasons for optimism. One is Jersey’s remarkable tradition of constant reinvention which, throughout the Island’s history, has seen innovation and industry combine to open new doors when old ones have closed. Next year will once again demand bold new creative thinking of that kind.

Another is the opportunity presented by changed circumstances to focus both individually and collectively on what our true priorities should be. Just as the phenomenal growth of the finance industry has been a mixed blessing for Jersey, bringing social division and excessive materialism along with undoubted prosperity, so may the imminent tightening of belts encourage a new realism and sense of community for which we will ultimately be the stronger.

That will only be the case, though, if all Islanders pull together and help each other through the difficult times ahead. That in turn will demand the sustained encouragement — through common sense political actions, a more widely spread sense of social responsibility and demonstrations of thoughtful, practical friendship — of a far stronger sense of Island unity than has been apparent for a long time.

When all the rest is stripped away, Jersey’s great treasure is its community spirit. It will be needed as rarely before in what we continue to hope, despite all the potential indicators to the contrary, will be a happy 2009 for all our readers.