AT this time of year newspaper columnists and other pundits rush to make predictions about the New Year. That’s a mug’s game. It’s far easier to predict what is not going to happen in 2009.

Certainly we are not going to see politicians, public servants, commentators and the great Jersey electorate use their common sense for a change.

Common sense is difficult to define, but everyone recognises it when they see it and you certainly know when it’s not being used. Two recent events illustrate the point.

First we had a report from an ad hoc group of St Helier officials who highlighted what they saw as serious flaws in the new Income Support scheme.

It’s all a bit confused at this stage, but it seems as though one of the most serious problems is that regular weekly visits to vulnerable people by parish officials has stopped since the new scheme was brought in. That probably resulted in one poor old soul lying dead at home for some considerable time before anyone noticed.

So far everyone has blamed Income Support for this tragedy, but Income Support is only a new method of paying social security benefits and it certainly wasn’t designed to lower standards. So why does the quality of welfare support, which is what we are really talking about, have to suffer because they have changed the way benefits are calculated and paid?

Those who have previously been responsible for organising or taking part in the system of weekly community visits must have known full well what the consequences would be if they were ended. Why didn’t they do something? Was it the result of a bureaucratic mix-up or a power struggle between Social Security and the parish?

Whatever it was, it could have been sorted out with a little dose of common sense rather than having to wait for an inquiry.

Then, of course, we also had the sad tale of the Woolworths staff not being entitled to redundancy payments. Naturally this has angered the unions and some politicians who lean so far to the left that they are going to fall over one of these days. One politician in particular uses the angle to launch himself onto any passing bandwagon.

These politicians and union leaders have called for the States to pay the redundancy money that would be due had the staff been made redundant in the UK. That’s another example of common sense being totally absent.

Yes, of course, if they believe a compulsory redundancy scheme is needed in the Island, then they should do what they can to get it, and perhaps if it’s so important they should have done so by now. But it’s unfortunately too late for the Woolworths staff. They will have to be helped in other ways.
It’s too late because it is obvious that there is no reason why individuals employed by Woolworths should be treated any differently to any other company in the Island.

To suggest that Jersey should now match UK redundancy payments is also nonsense – that’s unless you expect the staff to pay UK tax rates as well.

So within a few hours of the New Year, my prediction that many Islanders will fail to use their common sense has already come true.

But there are plenty of other things that are not going to happen this year.

For example, no one is going to make a decision about the future of Fort Regent in 2009. There is a huge amount of space going begging in an island that desperately needs space for all kinds of reasons, but presumably the States will continue to wait for a Fairy Godmother to come along and make it easier to redevelop the site in the future.

Another event unlikely to happen in 2009 is reform of the States so that the electorate know that they are not wasting their time by voting. Their influence on the composition of government (whatever that is in a Jersey context) is currently minimal.

Unfortunately Jersey has managed to devise a political system where we get the worst of both worlds. We don’t allow the electorate to choose a Chief Minister, and we don’t allow a Chief Minister to choose his ‘government’. The result is a classic fudge between what the States and what the Chief Minister wants, and so neither will be happy.

Then of course 2009 will not be the year in which the Chamber of Commerce congratulates the public service on doing a good job in difficult circumstances.

The myth that huge sums can be saved through reducing the number of pen pushers and cutting a bloated public service will persist through 2009 and beyond.

The Chamber leaders who spend so much time criticising the level of States spending should have been on the St Malo ferry at the weekend.

They would have seen quite a large number of foot passengers waiting to be checked through Immigration by just one officer. She had to stop and question several passengers, thus delaying the proceedings.

It was obvious that not enough resources were available for the job in hand. That’s not only annoying for waiting passengers, but also not good for the Island’s image amongst visitors eagerly waiting to get in. It certainly isn’t a sign of a bloated public service.

My final prediction of things that will not happen this year is that a certain Senator who has taken a lot of interest in the Haut de la Garenne fiasco will apologise for getting it all wrong.
Peter Body is editor of Business Brief magazine