Recession ‘only a matter of time’
Wednesday 21st January 2009, 3:00PM GMT.
IT is only a matter of time before Jersey goes into recession, the Chief Minister said yesterday.
On the same day he told manual workers to ‘get realistic’ over their pay claims, Senator Terry Le Sueur told the States: ‘It is a question now of when Jersey might go into recession and not if.’
He made the remark just minutes before his Treasury Minister announced a rescue package to stimulate the faltering economy.
Senator Philip Ozouf said that millions of pounds held in the stabilisation fund could be made available to support local businesses of all sizes through the credit crunch.
• Picture: Chief Minister Terry Le Sueur (right) faces Woolworths protesters before the first sitting of the new year. The States debate on their possible redundancy package has been adjourned.
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So there will now be a recession. At least someone has given the ‘elected’ CM a strong coffee. Let us not forget the background and the comments thus far. CM stating Manual Workers to ‘Get real’, the Ambulance Service on the verge of Industrial Action due to the States feet dragging on pay awards, and the biggest ‘gesture’ of all – adjourning the debate on redundancy packages! Priceless!?!?!?
Not forgetting in the background the Boy Ozouf with a sack full of ‘Rainy Day’ money, shouting ‘Dont panic!’. Will it free money for all?
Where do I sign up?
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When Jersey goes into recession and people start to lose their jobs how are they going to pay their taxes on their previous years earnings?
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But …. Terry ….. you said ………
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Quite right Bergerac, no bank depositors scheme, no redundancy laws, no sex offenders register and an Income Tax scheme that no ordinary member of Joe Public can get their head around.
What????????is this Island and their Government doing…it beggars belief.
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Housing prices are already falling and if you can find a mortgage you need a good deposit – ideally 30%+ to get a good deal. Translated that means that a fall of up to 30% is now being factored in to the value and a risk factor interest change penalty is being loaded against you if you don’t have a deposit of that level. That also means that negative equity is here, and the issue with that is, that with no upturn in sight, there is no market and prices will fall further as either people have to sell at any price and repossessions start. Inflation will be zero and as such no pay increases potentially will happen, so that States Manual Workers and other will strike (as they always do).
Whilst Jersey has a “currency” but it has no independent value as it is really a UK pound, despite what we pretend, so any reserves, whatever they are called, should be protected as a matter of urgency, as the IMF will not bail the island out. Ironically had Jersey adopted the euro, and developed strong trading relations with the continent, our predicament may have been slightly easier, food prices would have been lower, and food quality would certainly have been higher and tourists may have visited us more readily, but anyone expecting to find what they see on the UK TV ads here is in for a big surprise
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just when we need clear, articulate, far sighted and realistic leadership, with the interests of ALL social levels firmly at heart … what do we end up with ? god help us cos terry and wonderboy ozouf won’t.
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There is an easy answer to that Bergerac.
The States send you a big bill for the previous years tax. You have a certain number of days to pay after that the Viscount’s office is on your tail!
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i thought the rainy day fund was going to be used for bank deposit guarantees???
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Sorry can’t stop larfin!!!
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hear hear bergerac.
great to have a jump in your tax rate as you did well the year before, and now with leaner times on the horizon(possibly), a short fall in income.
i wonder where i am heading?
why we did not get a proper pay as you earn set up i dont know?
even better was guernseys idea when they scrapped everyones tax bill and started afresh, so i believe.
its all very well to be told to try and make do with less,but many are already doing so
and to do with less will mean next to nothing.
there has to be some quality of life.
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Not sure where you get the higher quality of food comment from??
At least people have acknowledged that there will hard times ahead and since most of the private sector will be luicky to get a pay rise this year i fail to see who the states workers should. After all its people in the private sector that pay there wages!!!
Since there is going to be less money coming in in tax revenue I suggest that states workers accept the fact that pay rises will be very low this year. Some companies are giving workers a choice – no rise and everyone stays in a job or take a rise and jobs will be cut!!!!
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Has he actually been watching the news then? thanks for catching up with everyone in the real world terry….thank goodness we’ve been saving into a rainy day fund, now where do we stand in line for some cash to help us through the recession or are all the banks going to get it?
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What happened about the ‘ no, recession will not hit jersey’
Just shows his incompetence
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I went to enquire about a mortgage today and was told HSBC were only offering 4 x joint salary. Sadly looks like we won’t even be able to buy through the homebuy scheme. House prices for 1st buyers are highly unrealistic for families. Developers must be compelled to lower prices by the States and if not they should openly justify the high cost. I suspect the margin is very lucrative and not in the best interests of the Island.
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“a matter of time” ! Open your eyes!
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You all moaning about the States Manual workers wanting better pay and they should but have you all forgotten that all the States Member want a pay rise and for what!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What a waste of taxes payers money that is, dont you think?
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Hands up who voted this man in as Chief Minister? Oh thats right it wasnt the voting publics decision.
The majority of the Island could see what was happening in the rest of the world and terry has only just caught up- incompetent!
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Oh, and don’t forget, Mr President is looking to nuke our golden goose because his coffers don’t look to hot either.
I think he wants his money back.
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Terry didn’t say we would never be in a recession, he said there was no evidence to suggest Jersey was in recession at the time he made the statement. I thought Jersey’s education system was good but it appears most making comments here failed simple comprehension. He also said we would be well placed to deal with the recession – so far he’s been right given unemployment has not risen like it has in the UK and is never likely to. Finally Phil isn’t using the Rainy Day Fund; he is using the Stabilisation Fund which was set up specifically for dips in the economic cycle. A dip is forecast so they are using it. Simple as.
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Should the States agree to withdraw monies from the stabilization fund,they should use an amount to give an instant income boost to many families by adopting Guernseys approach to taxation.Write off existing outstanding tax and bring in PAYE.Islanders have wanted this for many years and it would be so much fairer as everyone would pay including those who come and work here for a short term.
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Every single country in the world will be looking to maximise their tax take over the next few years.
Big bills are rolling in and by the time the world financial mess is sorted out trillions will have been expended worldwide.
So governments everywhere are going to be a lot less friendly towards any scheme that ‘saves’ taxes, there will be whole rafts of loophole and exception closing legislation.
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May 2008
“Speaking at the Chamber’s annual general meeting, Senator Ozouf said the fundamentals of the Island’s economy were sound, with evidence of confidence shown by the progress of the new States strategies, cuts in States spending and the lifting of the recession.”
11th November 2008
“JERSEY is not heading towards recession, the Treasury Minister said today after the news that the economies of Guernsey and the UK are going into decline.
Senator Terry Le Sueur said that there was, as yet, no evidence to suggest that Jersey would suffer the severe downturns which were being forecast elsewhere
Dougie Peedle, the States economic adviser agreed that there was no indication that Jersey was sliding into recession.”
21st January 2009
“Senator Terry Le Sueur told the States: ‘It is a question now of when Jersey might go into recession and not if.’
He made the remark just minutes before his Treasury Minister announced a rescue package to stimulate the faltering economy.”
All remarks as reported in the JEP.
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Senator Le Sueur refrained from telling the whole truth and nothing but the truth because he wanted to keep the beans calm rather than let them go off the boil
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Well all you moaners – you could have had Alan Breckon or Stuart Syvret, previous candidates for top job, neither of whom has ever been touted as either economics geniuses or competent administrators. Terry may not be the most lucid or polished but if he hadn’t reformed the tax system the States coffers would be in a right state now – in that respect he’s put us in a far better position to weather a recession than the US and UK governments.
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Save your money people – stop spending! i’m just like everyone else, two loans, 3 credit cards all maxed up! Living month by month!
It’s only going to get worse…
Jersey hasn’t yet been hit with the finance job losses…the budgets for 2009/2010 are being set by the banks as we speak…get ready for some serious job losses in Jersey’s finance industry! HR & IT jobs will be the worst hit.
UK interest rates look as though they’ll hit zero within the next few months!
This recession will last for a few years…that’s for sure!
As for Le Sueur…he’s as clueless as the rest of them! They spend to much time arguing without actually doing anything…
The fact that Jersey’s huge rainy day fund is deposited in Irish banks, in Ireland!!! rather than Jersey one’s shows the confidence these ministers have in Jersey’s financial situation!
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Hmmmm, I wonder who set up the Stabilisation Fund when times were good? Oh, yes, “useless Terry”
Who didn’t do anything like this when times were good? Gordon Brown. That is why we are better placed to tackle the recession, because of the prudence exercised by the man the ill-informed whingers in this forum never tire of castigating.
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Mike R. I don’t know if there is anyone competent enough to make a sensible decision at the moment.
I think we have a right to be concerned and share our thoughts and opinions. That’s not moaning in my book. That’s showing we care!
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Mike R
We probably would have had Alan Breckon or Stuart Syvret..
If we had been permitted to vote.
I am not sure that the public would have voted for a man whose finger is so on the financial pulse that he believes that I can clothe a child for £150 a year.
Admittedly he didn’t say what country I would have to be living in to do so.
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Big Bean, totally agree with you, since when did giving your opinion automatically mean you were moaning?
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Dickie Bean
What as opposed to someone who was prepared to pay over £200,000 of tax payers money to Woolworths staff without considering the consequence of precedent?
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Fair comment Joker.
However, I have more respect for someone who might make an error through though a well intended sense of caring for the plight or misfortune of others, rather than someone who makes mistakes as a result of disconnected arrogance or ignorance.
You will of course be alive to the fact that the proposal to pay tax payers money like this did not and may not happen due to democratic process.
Conversley, Mr Le Sueur’s out of touch beliefs are not something that can be voted for or against. They simply define him.
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Prawn again?
“However, I have more respect for someone who might make an error through though a well intended sense of caring for the plight or misfortune of others..”
As well intended as it was it is a dangerous sign that he considers the smaller picture being more important than the bigger one. Instead of wasting tax payers time debating Woolworths why not spend more time talking about the economy – something TLS has been doing.
Not sure how you can call TLS arrogant – have you met him? Just because his decisions are unpopular with some people doesn’t mean he is disconnected and arrogant. I’d rather a leader made the right decision rather than a popular one – that’s called not being ignorant and focusing on the bigger picture.
As for not voting – did the UK vote for Gordon Brown? Or those vetoing/passing legislation in the House of Lords???
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“Not sure how you can call TLS arrogant”
GST petition comes to mind. 19,000+ signatures. Le Sueur’s response to that? He wouldn’t care if it were 100,000 signatures, he would still push it through. That is to say that it would not matter to him if every single man woman and child in the island had signed it – plus a few more. That Joker is both arrogant and dictatorial.
Disconnected. Saying that a person can cloth a child for £150 a year is disconnected from reality let alone disconnected from the populace.
As for voting for Gordon Brown:- I think you would agree that voting for a political party is entirely different concept to the system we endure over here so a comparison is disingenuous.
And yes, I have met him.
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I’d say we are going into a depression but I don’t work in finance. I wouldn’t trust anyone in the present government to get it right they are just following on from the previous Chief Minister who in my opinion oversaw the end of Jersey with his policies. Is it a case of bail out before the ship hits the iceberg or carry on regardless? Anyone who is happy with the way things are run over here must be well insulated from reality.
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“Anyone who is happy with the way things are run here must be well insulated from reality”
Reality is the UK economy contracting by 2.8% this year accompanied by massive public borrowing, indebtedness for another 20 years.
Jersey is doing very well compared to either the UK or Guernsey. It should have saved more when times were good but we have always had a centrist government that has spent far too much on inefficient public services. The current lot are not great but far better than any alternative. There really isn’t much more to say.
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