Holding a census is now a priority

Monday 9th March 2009, 2:59PM GMT.

From Deputy Montfort Tadier.
I WAS surprised to read recent comments from the Chief Minister that ‘the Island could sustain 100,000 people.’ I doubt that I was alone in quietly chuckling to myself and thinking: ‘Could? You mean does.’

Many people believe that our population reached the 100,000 mark years ago, and it would not surprise me in the least if this were the case. Others would question whether we are even able to sustain the current population, let alone another 10,000.

In its draft of the proposed strategic plan, the Council of Ministers propose increasing the population by up to 250 heads of household per year, or 540 people a year. This will carry on, year upon year, until we near the 100,000 mark.

The trouble is, this is all theoretical, and there is a strong possibility that the Council’s figures are wrong.

No one knows for sure what the current population is (95,000? 100,000? 105,000?) — least of all the Council of Ministers, who appear to have their heads in the sand, or somewhere comparable.

Those of us who are involved in Scrutiny are used to having to make decisions that are based on evidence. However, these projections are based, at best, on outdated figures.

The last census was carried out in 2001. Normally, we would have started a new one in 2006/7. The plan for the census was scuppered by the current Treasury Minister, Philip Ozouf, ostensibly on the grounds that it would cost too much money. Many believe that the real reason is that the government would have been embarrassed by figures showing that the population is already spiralling out of control and that no one knows how many people are living here.

Before our ministers, in their wisdom, decide to grow the population, spurred on by a rabid desire for growth at all costs, mindless of the limitations of our natural environment, they should first of all commission a census — including all the ‘forgotten’ members of society — to find out what is the true population. Until then, speculation about future population figures is completely meaningless.
66 Don Farm,
St Brelade.

1
Nellie Macon

March 9, 2009 at 5:06 pm

Quite right Deputy Tadier – bearing in mind how many people avoid being included in a census, we “locals” usually add on an extra 10,000 anyway. For example – would there have been 100 people entered on a census as living at Broadlands, St Peter?

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2
Milo

March 9, 2009 at 5:46 pm

Surely to commission a census now, just about 18 months before the next one is due, would not be an efficient use of taxpayers’ money. By the time it was ready to roll out, it would be even closer to the usual census date, anyway. The whole point of a census is that it is a snapshot view of the community and it is essential that these are held at regular measured intervals, for meaningful comparisons to be made.
Please think again, Deputy, before you squander my money, with so little deep reflection on just what you would achieve.

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3
Graham

March 9, 2009 at 7:36 pm

Montfort Tadier may have good intentions (though costly) of doing a census, but seriously, how accurate would it be? How many people would refuse to send the forms back in under fear of data being used against them, or put on some Police database?

Montfort only has to look at the numbers of registered voters and more so the people who bother to vote, to wonder whether they would give a hoot about filling in a census.

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