From Phil Perchard.
I WOULD like to comment briefly on the section of the Strategic Plan green paper published on 3 March by the Council of Ministers which deals with net inward migration proposals (ie population growth).

Mathematical models such as those used in the green paper to predict population profiles in the medium to long term are notoriously unreliable. Although these models do provide a useful starting point when considering likely possible scenarios, they must always be treated with extreme caution due to the high level of uncertainty involved.

I note that the mathematical model has been used to predict the declining worker/pensioner ratio that results from, among other factors, an ageing society. On the basis of the model predictions, the green paper recommends a net inward migration of around 200 households per annum (ie about 430 people). I believe that there is a fatal flaw in this analysis for the following reasons.

The worker/pensioner ratio predicted by the model is based solely on the predicted age profile of the population. It fails to factor in unemployment figures. No mention has been made of the fact that a proportion of the workers in the worker/pensioner ratio will actually be out of work.

This is a very serious omission which throws the whole net inward migration proposals into question.
In conclusion, the argument for increasing the population is flawed because it is based on a model with a high and unspecified degree of uncertainty which fails to factor in projected unemployment figures into the worker/pensioner ratio.
Roselea Farm,
Grande Route de Faldouet,
St Martin.