IN 1918, as nations were reeling from the carnage of the Great War, the world was struck by an influenza pandemic which eventually killed millions.

Jersey did not escape what was dubbed the Spanish flu, and over a four-week period at least 300 Islanders died after being infected by the virus.

However, if that grim episode provides a forbidding backdrop for the present outbreak of swine flu which has already spread from Mexico, where it apparently originated, it is important to remember that this is not 1918, that global conditions are now very different from those that obtained at the end of a desperate conflict, and that medicine has since made many great leaps forward.

It is also important to remember that in spite of the present state of alert, the Mexican outbreak has not yet assumed pandemic proportions, and it is anything but certain that it ever will.

Significantly, although the strain of virus involved has proved lethal in Mexico, it appears to be less virulent in the other countries to which it has spread.

But none of this offers grounds for complacency. Quite rightly, the authorities staged an emergency planning meeting early yesterday, and, as the Medical Officer of Health, Dr Rosemary Geller, has explained on this page, the situation is being monitored through information provided by the Health Protection Ag-ency, the World Health Organisation and the UK’s Chief Medical Officer.

Dr Geller has also offered assurances that there is enough of the anti-viral agent Tamiflu in stock in the Island to treat the whole population, should that be necessary. Although Tamiflu cannot be expected to prevent infection in a population, it is effective in controlling flu symptoms, and, importantly, it has been shown to be effective against the H1N1 variant now in circulation.

Although an emergency plan is being formulated, it is quite clear that there is no reason for panic — for the very good reason that what we are currently witnessing is a state of alert which is two steps below the declaration of a full pan-demic on the WHO’s six-point scale.

In addition, if the worst does come to the worst, through a combination of modern medicine, self-help measures that have already been outlined by our health professionals, and the natural resilience conferred by today’s standards of hygiene and nutrition, there is no reason to believe that a repetition of 1918 is in the offing.