From Hedi Green.
IT is almost three years since we faced the hysteria of an avian flu epidemic, when governments bought billions of dollars of Tamiflu – the same anti-viral now being promoted to combat a supposed swine flu pandemic. The shelf life of Tamiflu also happens to be three years.

The Centre for Disease Control in the US is stating that strains of the flu are now resistant to certain medication treatments, specifically Tamiflu. In a laboratory test this year, 49 out of 50 HIM Influenza viruses showed resistance to Tamiflu.

In March this year the US FDA issued a new warning about Tamiflu, that it could kill, they stated: ‘The drug can cause hallucinations, delirium or abnormal behaviour which sometimes results in fatal outcomes.’ Furthermore, although it is regularly given to children and adolescents, its safety has never been established in children younger than 18 years of age as a flu treatment, or among 13-year-olds as a preventative.

Pregnant women and breastfeeding mothers are also not advised to take the drug as there is insufficient data from human studies to determine its safety.

The Japanese health authorities have reported that, so far, eight people have died after being given Tamiflu. Dr Rokuro Hama, head of the Japan Institute of Pharmaco-Vigilance, says that all of the victims have been children and adolescents between two and 17 years of age.

The World Health Organisation has, at the time of writing, increased its threat level to five, which means governments can activate their pandemic plans – and start handing out Tamiflu drugs. While they have admitted that the figure of 159 deaths in Mexico is wrong – there have only been seven so far.

The other worry is when, or if, medicine comes up with a specific anti-viral for swine flu. The last time they did – during the last swine flu scare in 1976 (the epidemic never broke, it was a threat that never materialised) – health officials rushed through a vaccination programme that resulted in one out of 100,000 vaccinated Americans developing Guillain-Barre paralysis and 25 deaths.

The US government paid out $93 million in compensation. Only about 200 cases of swine flu and one death were ultimately reported in the US in 1976 (Centre for Disease Control).

Unless you’re a drug company, you have to wonder why governments – and the media – are acting so irresponsibly. If you’re interested in a conspiracy theory, look no further than Indonesia and its health minister Siti Faldilah Supari who says she has not ruled out the possibility that the H1N1 virus is man-made.

The World Health Organisation is currently carrying out investigations at the Austrian research facility of Baxter International, a pharmaceutical company, where a large consignment of seasonal flu vaccine, which was due to be circulated to 18 European countries, has been infected with deadly live avian flu virus. Had the contamination not been detected, the vaccines may have started an avian flu pandemic, killing hundreds of thousands of people.

It is also interesting to note that the share prices of both Roche and GSK (pharmaceutical companies who manufacture Tamiflu and Relenza) have increased by an average of 6% over the last few weeks.

Jersey’s Public Health have responded fairly well to the possible threat by issuing the population with an information leaflet on swine flu. Mostly sensible advice about ‘catch it, bin it, kill it’, and following sensible guidelines if you suspect that you have flu.

However, Tamiflu has a big question mark hanging over it as to its efficacy and safety.
Even more worrying is Public Health’s proposal to vaccinate the whole population during the autumn of this year. Let’s hope Public Health do their homework thoroughly on the safety and efficacy of this new vaccine and put the safety of Jersey’s population first rather than what they might consider to be a good political response to a possible threat.
The Meadows,
Ivystill Lane,
St Saviour.