Signs of stability in homes market
Wednesday 13th May 2009, 2:58PM BST.
HOUSE prices are still seven per cent higher than this time last year but are showing signs of stabilising.
The average price of a home sold in January to March this year was £507,000 – up from £474,000 in the same quarter last year.
Speaking at the release of the latest Jersey House Price Index yesterday, States statistician Dr Duncan Gibaut said that house prices rose by about 20 per cent last year. This last quarter showed an increase of only seven per cent.
‘We are now seeing a stabilisation of average price,’ he said. ‘Jersey had seen strong growth up until mid-2008 and then it stabilised. Prices are still rising but at a lower annual rate.’
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This does not give a true reflection of the market.
The average price is based on what has sold…if only 5 £1m proeprties sold the average would be £1m but that is not the average price of a home in Jersey!
This is a meaningless comparison. Please compare the prices of similar houses sold then and now to see what is happening to the property market!
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Robert
I agree with you that reporting movements in similar price catagories would be more relevant. But provided they used the same method as when last reported it is a meaningful comparison.
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hear hear, robert (1)
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At first glance these figures are very misleading. They give the false impression that prices have not fallen in the first quarter of this year.
However, on closer analysis these figures do actually tell us that house prices have fallen by about 10% since their high towards the end of last year.
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Does this include the 46 “half price” houses ??
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The Stats unit have just published their results and methodology regarding house prices.
Ok,this leads to a different conclusion to the comment I made earlier regarding falling house prices. My conclusion was based on a simply and rough anaylsis of the figures quoted in the above article.
I do not doubt the accuracy of the Stats office results using their specified methodology.
However, I would urge caution before drawing conclusions regarding price trends.
The substantially reduced number sales in this period casts doubt on any such conclusions. Being small,and given current economic conditions, this data set cannot be said to be representative and without bias.
I stand by my belief that house prices are falling and will continue to fall. Time will tell. We will only get an more reliable picture of the house price movements once house sale rates have become more stable.
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Prices stable at far too expensive for the grasp of the average working couple without being a millstone,why because speculators enabled by corrupt or inept insiders have fueled large profit taking, when the states loan was in place people had a chance, when rental was capped at no more than one fifth of income people could breathe, now it is just work and fear for many, I’m alright jack,just think half a Million pounds plus all that interest for years for an average family semi it seems immoral to me.
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“Lies, damned lies and statistics”. I read, not so long ago in your pages, that there were only around 200 property sales in Jersey in a year! Divide by 52 and then by the number of agents operating. I would guess that an Estate Agent, on average, sells two thirds of a property per week!! Since Jersey decided to retain Sterling as its currency, the Pound has LOST over 25% of its value within a year against a basket of foreign currencies and more so against the Euro (I live in Spain). The truth is that property prices have fallen dramatically, as have people’s incomes, stocks and shares, pension funds, etc
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its called capitalism truthseeker!
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Statistics very misleading and giving a false impression of what’s happening.
Surely is this day and age the statistics unit can provide us with a more meaningful interpretation of what’s happening out there and not just base commentary on small samples(with high value properties, totally messing up the true picture)
Anybody studying property prices will know that prices have fallen, albeit slightly.
Guernsey’s numbers far more accurate
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I can tell you that so far this year more than 100 properties have been sold between £500k and £1m and that excludes share transfer so Jersey’s turnover is far greater than 200 per annum.
The thing that makes us different is that in Jersey where most be are employed (i say most) then we are not forced to sell our properties as we can service the mortgages on them (especially as interest rates are now so low) so that leaves those that have to move, new child, bereavemnet etc, so unless they bought recently they are not gouing to be in negative equity so willbe selling for a profit over purchase price.
the question is whether that price is less tthan it was a year ago ,and I have to doubt whether it is.
House prices (year on year) have never dropped in Jersey as we have not had mass redundancies or unemployment so people stay where they are until things improve.
As for the pund dropping you are right but we earn in stirling and most of our buyers are from the Uk so they have stirling, you can’t measure the house price index based upon how well the pound is or is not doing!
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What a load of rubbish,i know of one house,that has reduced the selling price by £200.000.Since nov 2008.lots of houses on the island,are very much overpriced.greedy estate agents are responsible;;and greedy property owners.
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I bought a house 18 months ago. I paid £55,000 over the valuation, but that was the decision I made because I wanted it so much and people were queuing up for it.
I have just had it valued, and although it has increased in value, if I were to sell it, I would get less for it now than what I paid.
Prices are stabilizing; I think what we are seeing in some cases as described in comment 12 is that people are now not paying over the top.
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