ONE swallow does not a summer make; nor does about 2,400 cases of swine flu in 29 countries worldwide equate to a global pandemic.

Since the news broke last month about an outbreak of a new strain of flu jumping from pigs to humans in Mexico – and then vice-versa in Canada – the pandemic emergency planning industry has sprung into action, spreading panic with doomsday scenarios that are increasingly being shown to be a massive over-reaction.

Tragically, people have died, but these have been among the ‘high-risk’ groups who are always more susceptible to influenza in its various forms, such as babies, the elderly and those who suffer from heart or respiratory conditions.

Let’s pause for a moment to put the current situation into perspective. There have been fewer than 60 deaths worldwide and 42 of those were in Mexico, yet the normal flu outbreaks in the UK kill about 4,000 annually.

Influenza is a common infection which we have lived with for years. It is ever-present, more noticably so in the winter. Every so often it mutates and becomes more virulent, making infections more difficult to treat with conventional medicines, so the drug companies come up with some new serum.

It is at such moments that the risk of an epidemic and the new buzz word – pandemic – increases. Unfortunately, that is precisely when health authorities and the media spring into over-reaction. Doctors, scientists, health officials and emergency planning officers whose careers are dedicated to the anticipation of diseases of human life elimination potential at last have a reason for drawing their over-inflated salaries and justification for spending millions of pounds on drugs and public awareness campaigns.

As it becomes obvious that this new flu is not going to spread at the alarming rates first predicted, we are now being bombarded with advice and scaremongering about a second wave in the winter.

How plausible are forecasts of a flu pandemic of Great Plaque proportions when those who have so far been infected in the UK are seen, looking perfectly healthy on television news broadcasts, albeit being interviewed from a ‘safe’ distance? These carriers of the supposed highly contagious swine flu beam at us from the quarantine of their own homes looking like they are swinging the lead.

Ironically, it has taken an 11-year-old school girl from a posh London suburb to put the whole over-hyped situation into perspective when she likened the swine flu she caught on holiday in Mexico, to being no worse than a cold.

In the words of Corporal Jones and the sound advice inside the cover of the Hitch Hiker’s Guide to the Galaxy: ‘Don’t panic!’

Whatever happened to the stiff upper lip for which the British nation is famed the world over? We don’t panic, nor do we overact; when faced with adversity or under threat, we stay calm, keep our wits about and get on with it.

I blame the Hollywood film factories for entertaining us with disaster movies and the recent BBC remake of the series, Survivors (in which the human race is almost wiped out by a virulent new strain of flu) for modern society’s preoccupation in being prepared for a disaster of some kind.

As entertaining as this genre is, and unfortunately for us taxpayers, it has fuelled an entirely new employment sector with varying career opportunities, from medical specialists to website designers. And at the top of the disaster plan triangle sit the international drug companies who delight their shareholders every time a new disease means coming up with another cure-all.

You can imagine my horror last week at the news that Health and Social Services were planning to vaccinate the entire Island population against swine flu. Well, having stockpiled it, they might as well use it.

How, I thought as my blood pressure rose, do they propose to do this against a person’s will? Did the Island’s Medical Officer of Health, Dr Rosemary Geller, propose to instruct the 200 nurses being specially trained to administer Tamiflu to capture and hold down refusniks and stick a needle in his or her bottom? To my delight, the vaccine will not be compulsory, so my dignity is not under threat.

While I appreciate Dr Geller’s concerns about the welfare of the populace, the last thing I want is a shot of Tamiflu. What we all need is a dose of common sense which in one fell swoop would eliminate disaster potential planning for ever.

It is common sense and not a bathroom cabinet full of remedies that prevents the spread of flu and other ailments; it is covering your nose when you sneeze and your mouth when you cough, and staying at home when struck down by flu so as not to spread germs throughout the community.

Just when I thought the over-hyping had reached a peak, Jersey’s very own emergency planning officer, Michael Long, put in his ha’penny-worth by advising Islanders to stockpile essential supplies.

According to Mr Long, as Jersey is an Island and heavily dependent on food imports, as we wait for the swine flu to reach our shores we should be laying down two weeks of supplies of water, tinned food and dried fruit, as well as board games to while away the time when the power fails and the DVD and TV won’t work. We should also be squirrelling away cash in the attic just in case the gnomes who dish out the money from cash machines go down with the flu and can’t work.

I know what’s coming next: Planning making larders mandatory in all new homes so that householders can carry emergency supplies in case of whichever disaster is predicted to occur at whatever point in the future.

I appreciate that it is advisable to be prepared for all eventualities, but I ask you, isn’t it about time we took a serious reality check, stiffened our upper lips and got on with life in proportion to the risks we face every day, and stop living in fear of what is not likely to happen?