‘Economies are healing, but slowly’

Saturday 23rd May 2009, 3:00PM BST.

Chris Stead, director of portfolio management, and Goolam Ballim, chief economist at Standard Bank. Picture by Richard Wainwright (00696773)

THE global economy is now going through ‘a restorative period of healing’, according to the chief economist of Standard Bank.

But Goolam Ballim believes it will take until 2012 before the major economies have stabilised.
He told Jersey practitioners that although the markets were better placed than at the start of the year, there was a need to be circumspect and vigilent.

Mr Ballim (38), who was in the Island to speak to a seminar audience of intermediaries, trustees and clients, was appointed as group economist five years ago and has worked for Standard Bank since 1999.

He told the seminar delegates that the current recession was the most synchronised downturn in 50 years, tending to be more protracted and deeper as a result. Although in the past two decades recessions had tended to be less frequent, the number of downturns born of financial crises had increased.

‘The current episodes are the worst in living memory,’ said Mr Ballim. ‘But the world is a slightly healthier place than in January. That is something to celebrate – the self-reinforcing downward spiral has probably been stemmed.’

Read the full story in the Jersey Evening Post.

Click here for subscription details.

Individual editions are also available online.

1
Phil Perchard

May 25, 2009 at 1:24 pm

Nah…what we’re seeing is a dead cat bounce.

Report abuse
2
Peter Anthony Troy

May 28, 2009 at 10:51 pm

I agree with the comment above regarding ”dead cat bounce”, though more discussion is needed.

Only a corporately employed economist could try and convince us that the global economy is improving. The majority of real and sustainable economic growth the world over is derived from small businesses not corporate monsters like Standard Bank as any true analysis proves. Large corporate organisations the world over are contracting not expanding. This recession has been caused by senior Bankers taking irresponsible risks. The current recession unlike others in the past 100 years is lead by the banking world – they are the cause of the problem not the solution.

This week the EU which many in the finance industry in Jersey appear to support without any apparent understanding of the potential damage the Brussels based EU government could do to the Jersey Economy; if the current trend of EU appeasement continues Jersey’s primary industry will inevitably follow the UK into decline.

Evidence for this can be found this week in announcements from the European Commission (EC); the EC has seized on the present financial crisis to bring the City of London under closer EU control. It is now clipping the wings of Britain’s Financial Services Authority, unveiling far-reaching plans for a new EU regulatory machinery with binding powers. This was predicted by large sections of independent commentators but alas to no avail.

As the UK media are locked in the daily soap opera of truly turning the UK parliament into, as The Daily Telegraph puts it, an “object of contempt”, the real government of the UK – the EU – is hard at work, set to destroy one of the most productive and valuable parts of the British. economy, the City of London.

Jersey people need to understand that the all embracing EU is also negatively impacting on the economy of Jersey, albeit slowly. This is occurring with the full ignorant support of senior members of the finance industry who frankly, have a responsibility to think outside their introspective corporate boxes – preferably urgently!

Peter Troy – Writer and broadcaster specializing on the UK’s membership of the EU.

Report abuse