More tough times ahead

Wednesday 3rd June 2009, 3:00PM BST.

pic not ours  must say copyTHE Chief Minister delivered a tough warning about Jersey’s short and long-term future as the major policy-setting Strategic Plan debate began yesterday.

Senator Terry Le Sueur said that the Island faced the possibility of worsening economic gloom in the immediate future as the worldwide recession continues to spread.

And he added that in the longer term the Island faced great pressures from the effects of the ageing population.

In opening the debate, which is expected to last at least three days, the Chief Minister said the key issues facing politicians were the economy, the Island’s infrastructure, population and the ageing population and housing.

He added that it was essential that all policies must be sustainable and that the plan should be flexible to face the ever changing challenges faced by the Island.

The plan, which was first lodged in draft form in February, outlines the Council of Ministers’ economic, environment and social priorities for the following three years.

The first day of debate was dominated by Deputy Daniel Wimberley’s proposals to maintain the current population level. His amendment was defeated by 34 votes to 16. with one abstention.

States Members were due to consider the entire plan this week, including 11 amendments.


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  1. 1
    Phil

    “We’re doomed” was often said on the Dads Army program. Whilst that program was fantasy, we sadly live in a reality where, unfortunately, we are governed by actors who are without a script or producer.

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  2. 2
    Ross

    Oh dear lord, now the penny has dropped ? To quote our CM “There is no recession in Jersey”, “Jersey will ride out the economic downturn”, “Population can exceed 100,000″ … need I go on.

    Let’s look forward to an increase in GST and the general (very high) cost of living in this island all to compensate our money grabbing States from the general hard workers.

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  3. 3
    Adrian

    Was all the spin, by certain establishment candidates, at the elections just to get votes I have to ask myself?

    I was warning of this ages ago however it fell on deaf ears. Now all of a sudden the penny has dropped.

    Reactionary government is doomed to failure and this is exactly what we have at present as far as I am concerned.

    I prefer the proactive method of planning ahead and taking the required steps to avoid obstacles, not working by touch alone, and waiting for things to hit you, before reacting.

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  4. 4
    Keith

    This guy should be on Mastermind – chosen subject stating the bl**dy obvious!

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  5. 5
    truthseeker

    Let’s do the old ” frighten the b**gers ” into submission routine.so we can get back to the do as we like modus operandi make big bucks for ourselves and when the quality of life drops below what we can bear and it get’s like Hong Kong we can escape to our villa by then we have our dosh and who cares a jot about the punters.

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  6. 6
    Mike

    The ageing population surely refers to the ageing rich as everybody else will have to leave the island as it is impossible to pay rents with an average pension…

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  7. 7
    J G

    ………..oh dear Mr Le Sueur, but you said we were alright here, and there was no recession in Jersey.

    Remember? or had you conveniently forgotten?

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  8. 8
    Jacqueline

    Ok anyone over sixty time for the box no matter what you contributed in your youth to the s,s, dept or the tax office. No more than one child per couple as in China.As for housing and all the services to go with it! go for it build, build, build, encourage more and more to the island of accommodating all,never mind the concequence of social unrest, the need for a new hospital/ prison / car parks ect. After all the politiacians who took these decisions will be deceased so who cares ?????? How short sighted as well as thick can they be ???? lots by the look of it.

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  9. 9
    Alps Expat

    Doom mongering with no solutions! The rest of the world is finding ways to cope with this crisis, but unlike Jersey they have generally competent politicians.

    So I guess he is right to be worried, despite the fact that Jersey should be better placed than most to cope with this situation.

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  10. 10
    Elaine

    Mr. Le Sueur was not the only one to say that we were alright, and there was no recession in Jersey (post 6 by JG and post 2 Ross) for here in clear print from this website are the words less than 9 months ago of Frank Walker, who in my opinion is the main cause of all the current problems in Jersey not least Finance. To quote his words to Harry McRandle;

    JERSEY is in a ‘fantastic financial position’ that is ‘cause for celebration and congratulation’, said Chief Minister Frank Walker in opening the debate on the States Business Plan yesterday. And he said that the Island was currently ‘better placed than any other finance centre I know’.

    Read it yourself here;
    http://www.thisisjersey.com/2008/09/17/economy-in-good-health-for-future/

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  11. 11
    Annie Du Feu

    Ross (2) agree completely, our CM has no idea whatsoever about the future. I think Mystic meg would do a better job. One moment jersey will not be affected by the recession, now this. Think before you open your mouth Terry.

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  12. 12
    davey west

    Some facts for Mr Le Suer and the council of secrets. I know you only listen to tax payer funded expensive consultants, but In France the population per square mile works at roughly seven. America 9 and the overcrowded island called England 375 people. Lets get this completely clear, for over fifty years we are being told by Government you must have more and more young people working to contribute towards the ageing population, yep young people get old too, work it out.

    So what’s gone wrong ?

    Population of Jersey now around 90,000, 45 square miles equals 2000 people per square mile and we still need more. You lot are nuts.

    One suggestion for you. It seems ridiculous that towards the end of a working career, when children are educated and a couple may own there home,retired people need far less money to live on.

    Why has the States not explored the system that the UK has brought in by raising the tax on earnings on retired people, from all walks of life to 50% on any amount earned over £150,000.

    Most couples could live well on £10,000 a month.

    I guess the Jersey civil servants would veto any attempt by States members to enact this, damaging their pension pots.

    Davey West.

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  13. 13
    Florida Bean

    Have these ” Key Issues ” not been the same for the last 25 years? So, it’s hardly news now is it !
    What these people need to do is to stop talking and start doing…….

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  14. 14
    Darren Le Geyt

    Here weare all again, complaining about what we already know. These emails to the JEP to no good as the letters page in the JEP rarely reflects the concerns or volume posted on the website.

    More direct action is needed to get the publics viewpoint heard and acted upon. Unfortunately I do not think that the JDA is up to it.

    Anyone with similar thoughts can post if they would like to set up a co-operative webpage to ttry and get the unvarnished truth out and make positive suggestions to help the people of Jersey fight against this useless Council of Monkeys.

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  15. 15
    Overpopulation

    The states constantly tell us about the ‘problem’ with the ageing population – many older people have pensions and investments and have paid for their houses.

    Jersey’s problem as well as the UK and Europe is the benefit claiming population of working age – I do not know how much income support costs, but they are now giving it to immigrants who have been here 5 years. If they did not allow unrestricted immigration by people prepared to work for low wages this would not be needed as locals would be able to earn more.

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  16. 16
    joker

    Here’s some news for some of the above posts who seem to be confused. The whole point of increasing working population numbers now is to act as a buffer to put off the cost of the aging population problem for another 20 years or so. Whilst this won’t solve the problem it will delay it perhaps to provide breathing space so as to increase taxes more slowly to cope.

    We have a stark choice. We increase the population now or we put up taxes and social security contributions now to build up a fund sufficient enough to mitigate the looming problem. Personally I’d vote for the higher taxes option. It appears that a lot of posts above don’t want either… that’s is what is pressuring politicians to increase the population because being tight beans we’d rather see an increase in traffic than be hit in our pockets!

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  17. 17
    Gerry

    The Chief Minister et all should be concentrating on keeping the Islands economy living within its means.
    That would be the task of anybody running a multi-million pound turnover company.
    The unfortunate truth is that we have a motley crew of career politicians who are probably (In the main) unemployable at the required executive level.
    They conjure conspiracy and principals of outrage which cost the taxpayer a fortune.
    If budgets are not spent they should be returned to the treasury and not spent for the sake of it.

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  18. 18
    Adrian

    joker the demographic time bomb has been known about for 30-40 years. Why didn’t the States get to grips with it then, instead of turning a blind eye and hoping for it not to happen?

    They allowed people to take money from the pot in the early days who never really contributed and thus passed the buck to the next generation. This was a very unfair thing to do meaning that the chain of events we now face had been set in motion. In a growing population this is fine, however when it is actually shrinking it is suicidal. This is why we are where we are now.

    I believe we have been hood winked into this and will now have to carry the can for this gross error by government. I don’t see why anyone should have to work longer to pay for a mistake made by government. I also don’t see why anyone should loose pensions they were promised because of this mistake as well.

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  19. 19
    david brown

    i expect by the by the time i retire the retirment age will be at 70, gst at 20% and itis snapping at my heals.
    solution, a short trip to switzerland, one way ticket of course.

    unless is drop down dead on the way.
    problem solved.

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  20. 20
    BS Deluxe

    Joker 16

    There is absolutely no need to keep increasing taxes.

    Perhaps the states can stop WASTING our money instead.

    Jersey generates enormous wealth in taxes every year….what happens to it.

    I am no economist or anything but surely the following would help instead of raising taxes:-

    1) Jersey relies heavily on transport. Invest in state owned transport services (airlines, ferries and even buses). This will generate income, jobs and we won’t be held to ransom for the sake of profit. It will reduce costs and maybe prices so we can all buy local.

    2) Jersey to take advantage of it’s natural resources. Tidal powered electricity, wind farms, solar power…….this will help the environment too and of course generate jobs.

    3) Employ local and set reasonable profit margins so contractors or businesses can’t rip people off to make as much money as possible. Maybe prices will drop and we can afford to live!

    4) Start upholding the law and punish accordingly. Introduce more fines for littering, anti-social behaviour, traffic violations etc. This will either generate income or help improve quality of life in the island. Maybe even deport convicted criminals rather than pampering them in Hotel La Moye.

    5) Jersey is a finance centre so where is the Bank of Jersey. At least we can protect our savings in a nationalised bank if they don’t want to pass legislation to protect ALL savings…surely!

    6) Introduce PAYE and outlaw cash in hand payments for work…this is the 21st century…nearly everyone has a bank account!

    7) reduce or discontinue subsidising servives or businesses that do not deserve it or need it…..at least subsidise based on performance if it is absolutely necessary. Do Doctors still get subsidised by the States….and why do we continue to subsidise Connex and Condor for such poor, poor service?!

    8) States Departments to stop spending annual budgets if there is no real need to do so (maybe reward them for spending less)….and if necessary explain why they need to spend their budgets on the same tasks every year. Do we really need the same roads dug up several times every year???

    maybe Jersey should learn to become more self-sufficient rather than relying too heavily on outside forces!

    Some of the £44 million that will be pumped into the economy could help get this started.

    This is just my opinion….

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  21. 21
    Civil Serpent

    Expanding on BS Deluxe’s 4th point.

    Most drugs are imported to Jersey and La Moye has tons drug importers serving lengthy sentences. How much does that cost the island?

    Remove that category of prisoner from La Moye and I would bet that the prison would be a quieter place. How?

    It is also an offence to ‘export’ drugs from England (and presumably other places).

    Rather than prosecuting drug ‘importers’ here and then babysitting them for many years, why can’t we just handcuff them to a cop, return them to the port from which they left, and hand them over to the authorities for the original offence they committed there of exporting the drugs.

    They can then be prosecuted and imprisoned at someone elses expense rather than our own. No need for a bigger prison or for any more staff at La Moye. We could even agree with the UK that we will happily deal with any people exporting drugs from Jersey to England:)

    Now that other reciprocal agreements have evaporated, let them keep their own scum.

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  22. 22
    truthseeker

    Civil Serpent.I like it, I like it a lot, what a sensible suggestion, I wonder what sort of limp wristed response the powers that be would have you swallow I suspect …a bit of PC excuse making nonsense about not being allowed to in case we annoy Gordon,now look here,we are either self governing and self determined or not…I have huge admiration for Oz, not allowing illegals to roam all over the place and get lost in the woodwork, and we certainly do not need to import scumbags,we have sufficient for the time being thank you…..

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  23. 23
    Ian

    I say we ban the states!

    Leave all the civil servants where they are to continue with infrastructure. Get rid of the States as all they do is spend our money. Is there anything decent they have come up with in the last 15 years?? I can’t think of one thing!

    How much have they wasted between them in the last 15 years?? It’s unthinkable just on capital expenditure alone!

    They cost more than they are worth, so why not just bin them and anything important goes to an Island referendum.

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  24. 24
    joker

    Adrian

    Actually I was agreeing that it has been known for a long time. But they had not turned a blind eye. Instead of raising taxes (which us old Jersey folk hate above all else) they allowed the population to increase to compensate – I’m sure you will agree not the right choice but it was not turning a blind eye as you say. History teaches us that Jersey politicians are seldom voted in if they threaten to raise taxes. Therefore we have had a history of Chamber members going for the popularist policies or those that hit our pockets least. The only people to blame for that are the public who voted them in.

    BS Deluxe – your heart is in the right place but I’m not sure how viable your ideas are. Tell me of one government that is efficient?

    1) You want them to own and run a public transport system? If you do that there will be no room for private enterprise and all that will come with a publicly owned system is good pensions, salary, threat of strikes and other inefficiencies which are removed by healthy private competition.

    2) Tidal power? If that was viable surely investors would be knocking on our door – after all we have the 4th (might be higher?) largest tidal range in the world.

    3) Employing local is great but you are meddling with market forces and freedom and competition which takes us down a socialist route which is fair enough if that’s what you want.

    4) Agreed (Civil Serpent too) but if you deport they will not serve any sentence because the crime was committed, and they were sentenced, in Jersey. It is where they are ‘caught’ which determines where they are prosecuted. And what about violent crimes – I think most victims want to see justice done, not to see them roam free in their homeland to save money.

    6) you can’t force people to use banks – again a bordering on a dictatorship.

    Agreed with the self sufficient. It’s time Guernsey woke up and we joined forces.

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  25. 25
    BS Deluxe

    Joker

    Sorry, I should have expanded on some of my points a bit more.

    When I said employ local I meant locally resident …in other words find jobs for our unemployed before bringing in an outside workforce which isn’t really necessary.

    With the bank idea I was trying to find a solution to the fact the States are dragging their heels over deposit protection. Perhaps if we had a Jersey Savings bank for local residents only then they might feel more at ease protecting those monies rather than the billions invested from outside.

    Just thoughts :-)

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  26. 26
    Adrian

    joker If you knew the population was demographically challenged at a future date reference workers, would you at that time, either:-
    1.Allow loads in like in the 60′s, 70′s, 80′s and 90′s, who were all part of this demographic time bomb?
    or.
    2.limit the population until this bulge had passed by in the early years of the 21st century?

    Jersey has sown the seeds of its own destruction by allowing all these baby boomers in thus exasibating the retirement problem by many fold meaning even more immigration has to be allowed to cover for the earlier error.

    I said this would happen and it has. The States are responsible and have turned a blind eye to this as far as I am concerned. They thought growth was good, well it has been for a select few the rest are beginning to be left way behind now, and will have even more problems soon like no retirement for the majority and no pensions for many. Is this a good position to find yourself when you were promised 30-40 years ago that you were worrying over nothing and that we would all be retiring in our 50′s, at the latest, as computers etc would enable us to retire early and enjoy ourselves?

    Tidal power is more and more viable than ever before but vested interests in the oil and the nuclear industry don’t want it so the brakes have been applied to slow down its development.

    BS Deluxe is correct sort out what we have in Jersey first before looking outside. Everyone here regardless of origin needs a job, or else we will all be paying for lots of people whether local or not to be on welfare. Is this a good idea? I think everyone would say don’t let anymore in until these problems are addressed unless there is absolutely no option.

    As per bank deposit protection this is long overdue, as per normal, on important issues that affect the general population, as far as I am concerned, it is left till a later date whilst they worry about big business and the rich all the time.

    Hopefully no bank goes under before legislation is in place, or else in my opinion, those in charge might have to go into hiding to avoid ending up as collateral damage. An angry mob is not easily put off, easily when money is involved.

    As per market forces these are used as an excuse by the big businesses to control the local population’s wages as it means they maximise their profits by hitting their wages by employing immigrants on worse conditions, but still maintaining profits for themselves.

    They don’t care if these new migrants end on welfare, once they have used them, as it isn’t their responsibility, as it is passed on to the taxpayers who will often be the workers who have lost out to these new migrants!

    I myself would make laws that if any businesses wants to use cheap labour that it was liable for them until they reached retirement age. This would stop the use and abuse that often seems to prevail in capitalistic systems.

    Thus if businesses went down the route of cutting wages they would incur a cost for this, whereas at present they pass this cost on to the taxpayer. Why should this be allowed?

    I believe there needs to be a trade off between profit and a fair wage this is one way to achieve this. If businesses couldn’t easily access migrant labour they would be forced to pay a living wage which surely is only fair in a decent caring society? Many locals would then be able to do these bargain basement jobs.

    Without wholesale immigration worldwide big business would be forced to pay better wages as they would have no option. Migration is thus prefect for them as it drives wedges between different sectors of the working population.

    Whilst these factions are at each others throats, it leaves the businesses free to maximise profits still further, and enables then to sell more goods and services they wouldn’t be able to sell normally, e.g. CCTV and security measures so that rival neighbours can keep an eye on each other due to rising tensions in the population.

    Inevitably a diverse population leads to more control of liberties and more surveillance by the authorities to monitor any possible flash points. This means more police etc and increased taxes to pay for all this.

    These are my own observations and opinions on things. It is unfortunate, but where ever I have been there are always racial tensions in any country that has a diverse population. Any country which is mainly a mono-culture does not have these problems. What does this say about humanity?

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  27. 27
    Civil Serpent

    “It is where they are ‘caught’ which determines where they are prosecuted.”

    Not always. e.g. Rod Newall was ‘caught’ in international waters.

    Clearly the initial offence would be the exportation from England. The importation to Jersey naturally occurs sometime after that.

    They should face justice for the original offence first because without the exportation there would not have been an importation.

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  28. 28
    Gary

    HERE IS WHY WE ARE In A MESS

    if a politician came forward and said we need to increase personal tax levels to 25% increase social security to 10%, locals are going to have to work the fields and shops cos inward migration is set at 0 would he get voted in? I think not, we vote in people who tell us what we want to hear, if the above would allow migration to stand still i bet there is not 1 of us who would vote him/her in!

    We can moan about TLS and Frank but we have no debt, we can fund capital projects like the incinerator from funds put aside we have a rainy day fund and money in funds to help us now, so somewhere along the line we haven’t gone too wrong!

    I totally agree migration needs tackling, I believe we have tough times ahead, but we are lucky that we are in such a good position, look at the debt of over countries!

    GST is a terrible tax and I don’t agree with it being on food etc but somebody took the decision to bring it in and we now crucify him for it, I am sure he won’t be standing again but my point is in tough times tough decisions have to be made, the gst rally was in my opinion a bit of a farce, If i said 20 means 20 should not come in lets have a 5% maximum tax I could get lots of signatures, who wants to pay tax? so suggesting that we lower it would be popular but it wouldn’t be for the good of the island!

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  29. 29
    BS Deluxe

    Gary

    There is absolutely no reason to increase taxes. Perhaps the States can stop wasting our money. There have been too many “consultants” fees, losses on exchange rates and projects which no-one wants or needs.

    If anything perhaps the £44 million ready to be pumped into the economy can be used to lower taxes for a year. Then people may have more money to spend and the economy may improve that way….just a thought.

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  30. 30
    joker

    Adrian

    Even if Jersey had stopped all immigration from the 60′s to the 90′s we would have still seen an (albeit slower) increase in population from increasing birth rates and increase life expectancy. What would you have suggested? Introduce a one baby policy like that nice place China? Managing a population so there’s a balance would be difficult indeed – probably why it’s never been achieved.

    Like I said the States took the easy option because that’s what the people wanted. People vote in politicians therefore people have reaped what they sowed – we’ve only ourselves to blame and the older you are the longer you’ve had time to do something about it.

    Yeah they also said we’d all be living on Moon too. Pinch of salt springs to mind. Very few people have been able to predict the future accurately so don’t go blaming all those who speculate.

    May be you’re right about tidal power and perhaps they are the same creators of concerns about side effects such as that it would reduce our surf and cause the shorescape to change, (hasn’t that been done enough already?), even sap the energy from the oceans slowing the earth’s rotation. Whether any of this is true is irrelevant, the point is no one is investing in it and harping on about tidal power and how it will be Jersey’s saviour is not realistic at present unless you personally have the fortune to invest.

    Deposit protection could easily bankrupt Jersey. Like any insurance, as long as you’re happy to pay the premium (i.e. increased bank charges or taxes) to compensate for the cost of being protected. I’ve always wondered what the effect of quantative easing would have in Jersey; would it weaken our pound or would it stay the same value as the UK pound? Answers on a post card.

    Minimum wage protects employees. You could argue it is too little which is fine, but increasing minimum wage will only increase the cost of goods and services passed onto you the customer. Some are profiteering from this, others struggling to stay in business

    Why do you think so many come to Jersey? Because it’s grass is greener than most other places. Only natural for people to want to better themselves otherwise we’d all still be living in caves scavenging for scraps of food.

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  31. 31
    Adrian

    joker the point is if Jersey had thought before they acted they wouldn’t be in the mess they are would they? Is this sensible management or fire fighting?

    No one wants wholesale immigration name me one country which is happy with this?

    As per not managing the population properly get it wrong and you get problems like China are facing now and the world is facing by having too many people.

    A little parable for you:-

    A farmer was dependent on his one field to sustain him and his family as they were very poor and had nothing else. He could grow enough crops to survive from year to year.

    What happens when you have one or two locusts in the farmer’s field? Nothing.

    What happens when you get a swarm in the same farmer’s field? The farmer and his family starves to death.

    As per bank deposit protection I thought Jersey was supposed to be well regulated? How can a well regulated jurisdiction not have something as basic as bank deposit protection?

    As per tidal power would you prefer that or something like Chernobil near by? Which in your honest opinion is less damaging to the environment and your health?

    Why is minimum wage needed? It is needed to protect the most vulnerable from exploitation. If you live in an expensive place you need a larger wage to survive don’t you? This is simple economics. Therefore if you want to reduce wages you reduce costs don’t you?

    Another interesting point who do you think gains the most from a mobile workforce and immigration?

    Is it business or the local population?

    Who has to pay for social housing etc for these people if they fall on hard times?

    Is it business or the local population?

    There is no problem with people wanting to better themselves, but you must admit they can’t all better themselves in one place can they? They do need to be spread out a bit don’t they?

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  32. 32
    mad foetus

    On Depositor’s compensation, the JEP report was factually wrong. It said that “Jersey people will be protected” or some such. That is not the case. The truth is that people who deposit monies with Jersey banks will be covered. This is very different.

    I bank with a UK bank because they offered internet and phone banking long before any Jersey one did. And I have stayed with them. So I am protected up to £50k if that bank goes down. Anyone who is worried about a bank failing can open an account with a UK bank and get that protection.

    The Depositor’s protection scheme will mainly benefit non-Jersey residents who use Jersey banks. Exactly the sort of business that Adrian thinks is immoral.

    Couldn’t make it up.

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  33. 33
    mad foetus

    Adrian,

    Tidal power, like wind power, is an environmental catastrophe: they destroy ecosystems. That’s why major green figures like Lovelock support nuclear.

    The only renewable that makes sense is solar power, particularly large plants with reflective mirrors such as those used in Valencia. We can fill places like the Sahara with them using known technology. That’s the way to go.

    Tidal is just wishful thinking.

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