Flu ‘could hit one in three’
Monday 15th June 2009, 3:00PM BST.
Medical Officer of Health Dr Rosemary Geller
MORE Islanders will fall ill with swine flu this summer and a third of the population could be infected by the autumn, Jersey’s Medical Officer of Health said today.
The warning comes just days after the first case of the H1N1 virus was confirmed in the Island and hours after the UK suffered its first swine flu death.
Dr Rosemary Geller said this morning that she expected more cases during the coming weeks and warned that the virus could spread rapidly throughout the Island later in the year.
She said: ‘I am expecting more cases and we will be doing everything to contain each case as it occurs. I am not expecting too many cases during the coming weeks, and the fact that summer is on its way and the schools are breaking up is a good thing for the Island.’
‘But we could see an increase in the autumn. The worst-case scenario we are planning for is for a third of the population to become ill within a four- to six-week period of the start of the virus spreading. We are not at that stage yet.’
Information leaflets about the virus have recently been posted to every household. The leaflets, which have been translated into Polish and Portuguese, are also available online at www.gov.je/flu or from the Le Bas Centre, the customer services centre at Cyril Le Marquand House and the Citizens Advice Bureau.
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Ah of course. Nothing like scaring the pants off the population with a bit of “lick your finger and stick it in the air” guesswork and speculation eh Mrs Geller?
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Nothing like a bit of scare-mongering to justify the enormous salary !!!
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Bluntly we are still in the uninformed speculation stage and my guess could be as good as Dr Rosemary Geller’s or indeed anyone elses.
It seems at the moment that the disease is not very infectious so a low number of cases per week over a long period could be more likely than a very high number of cases in a very short space of time.
Also it is not very strong, most people infected seem to suffer mild symptoms and quickly recover, serious illness or death only occurs when the patient has a previous medical condition or infirmity.
Normal regular seasonal flu infects hundreds of thousands of people and thousands die every year over the whole of the UK. My guess is that swine flu will not be much better or worse than that, in fact the medical profession will be watching anyone looking like they have flu like hawks so it is possible that less will die than in a normal year as they will be pumped up with Tamiflu etc at the first sign of a symptom.
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As we have an ageing pouplation will the hospital be able to cope when the virus spreads in the winter months.
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Like I said previously wait and see in the autumn. We will know then whether there is anything to worry about. If it is all “much ado about nothing” then everything will be hunky dorey. If not, and it is bad, then expect mass panic from the general population.
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Absolutely right Jack, how on earth can she be allowed to make such baseless scare mongering statements.
She would be crucified by the UK press, remember Edwina Curry and the egg scare?
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Why do we waste money translating “you might get the same minor disease that every media outlet in the world is banging on about” into foreign languages?
It’s not a bad disease – you catch it and you get over it.
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Given the small population of Jersey, all crammed into an area of less that 48 square miles I would have thought that an epidemic of H1N1 was highly likely.
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Could this be the answer to our over-population problem at last?
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Okay, can’t say I’m particularly concerned, but there are ways I could be less concerned.
Jersey is absolutely atrocious for people (in some cases seemingly ‘respectable’ business people) giving the most awful, spluttery coughs right into the faces of strangers whilst walking by them on the street… of course these coughs never involve the mouth being covered.
Also, it is disgraceful the number of women who do not wash their hands after using the toilet.
Can someone please make it acceptable to publicly ridicule such people until they learn how grotty and obscene they are?
Jersey needs to get some TV advertising that blatantly says that these things are utterly disgusting and socially unacceptable. Thank goodness this is ‘just’ swine flu because anything more serious Jersey would be doomed!
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#7 it’s easy to say that if you’re one of those people that are likely to survive it.
Maybe those who are more susceptible to the serious aspects of it just don’t matter enough? If my dad caught it at the moment there is every chance it would kill him, I hope to God that some idiot filthy habit of not washing their hands or covering their mouth when they cough doesn’t cost him his life!
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Why has the identity of the local person who has caught the flu been kept secret? Should his/her details not be made public to ensure that everyone who may been in contact is made aware. Jersey’s approach is different from the UK in this respect.
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Maybe some of you should learn how to read,
She says
“But we could see an increase in the autumn”
and
“The worst-case scenario we are planning for is for a third of the population”
She is not saying that this will happen BUT that is what they are planning for, i would prefer a well perpared hospital as to one who has not given it a second thought.
The only people scare mongering are those who can’t read.
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What a truly idiotic statement to make! She was telling us not to panic 3 weeks ago and then this comes out!
What evidence does Dr.Geller have to make this statement? Since the outbreak at the end of April, Jersey has had one case so far. To make this statement now is stupefying… We don’t know what could happen from now til the autumn! They could find a cure or the virus could die out.
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I take everything the health board states with a pinch of salt.the,re forever scaremongering and have a morbid obsession with health issues.notice they always say could can, might, may.covering themselves all the time. truth is they are just guessing and can,t predict what will happen.
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As Corporal Jones would say ‘DONT PANIC DONT PANIC’!
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Could hit one in three, could hit one in five, or none. Lets explore the could theme further – Elvis could be alive and working in a chip shop in Woking!
Dr Gellar if you don’t know then don’t speculate.
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Bernard, I would guess that the evidence is based on years of knowledge of other illnesses spreading in Jersey, human behaviour patterns, knowledge of Jersey’s demographic, knowledge of weather patterns and general knowledge of how the illness is behaving worldwide.
But you shouldn’t panic because the fatality rate is incredibly low, never mind that they have more doses of Tamiflu than there is population (well the official population anyway).
I worry because my dad’s health is compromised AND he works in a hospital, but that’s as far as my concern goes.
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Dr Rosemary Geller is just desparate for us all to get Swine Flu just to justify her scaremongering.I am sure all the other petty little jobsworths are as well so they can do all in their power to interfere with the smooth running of the island and close it down. Bad news however…..its only flu not the black death so back off boys and girls
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David wrote above:
“Why has the identity of the local person who has caught the flu been kept secret? Should his/her details not be made public to ensure that everyone who may been in contact is made aware. Jersey’s approach is different from the UK in this respect.”
I see. So a person who has suffered a relatively trivial illness (the ‘flu) now has to be outed and shamed?
Perhaps the recovered patient – for that is doubtless his/her current state of health – should be branded on the forehead, dressed in black robes with a luminescent sign saying “H1N1″? Should he or she walk the streets, ringing a bell and shouting “Unclean”? Should this person be banished forever from the island under the rules of perquage?
For heavens’ sake, David, wake up and get real.
But that’s not “the Jersey Way”, is it?
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So worst case scenario is that it will be like a normal winter flu outbreak except this will be in the summer. How many millions have we spent on this and what will happen if a truly deadly pandemic like bird flu were to break out now that we have spent all the money.
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Please could somebody tell me who this is.
I would like to catch it now so that it doesn’t strike me at an incovenient time in the future.
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18. Leah Holmes
I don’t think it’s any knowledge. It’s guesswork.
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Bernard, think that if you want but illnesses and the spread of them actually follow very set patterns which is why the source can be tracked back using Mathematics. You can predict how you think it will progress, all things being equal, but naturally there are many variables and there can be ‘freak’ happenings. Of course the very fact that the illness receives so much coverage could alter its spread (here’s hoping).
#20, I doubt it’s a ‘naming and shaming’ exercise, why on earth would it be shameful? But it would be helpful to know that you had been in contact with that person. I don’t doubt they will have been asked who they’ve been in contact with but how many of us could give a complete answer to that question?
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#20
I do not think contracting influenza is shameful or trivial, but the most important point is that influenza is infectious.
Jersey’s ‘secrecy’ approach to this is probably not the best way of controlling its spread and is at odds with almost everywhere else in the world.
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It’s a bit silly to say things like this.. very worrying for a lot of folk (young and old) – best we get a second opinion, from somebody who knows!In the meantime lets have some practical advice…
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OK Flu is not a minor illness, it is very serious and most of you pontificating on Dr Geller’s pronouncements have no idea how bad this could get as the last major outbreak was 1968 and after WWI it killed more than the war did!
How many people passing negative comments even have a basic certificate from St John’s? Not many I expect.
Quite frankly most idiotic comments come from a sad bunch of muppets with too much time and too little brain, a little like Winnie the Poo
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I think many people should look back to comment 13 made by ben. He seems to be the only one who has actually taken the time to read the article, instead of posting about Dr Geller and her so called ‘speculations’.
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Practical advice Tintin?
Buy some sanitising gel and use it after you’ve used an ATM, used one of the QuickOut machines at the supermarkets, touched door handles (although use a sleeve if possible for these), alternatively don’t put your hands near your mouth, touch food etc until you have washed your hands.
Generally it’s just basic hygiene. You could still catch it of course, it’s hard to completely sanitise your life (and it’s not great for your immune system anyway).
Most importantly, if you are one of the people that ends up getting it, don’t be a martyr and turn up at work convinced you’ve just got a 24hr bug! I’m sure it looks very dedicated to go to work when ill but if there is a chance you are infectious with anything worse than a very mild bug then it’s quite selfish. What doesn’t harm you could kill someone else.
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Boris,
“OK Flu is not a minor illness, it is very serious and most of you pontificating on Dr Geller’s pronouncements have no idea how bad this could get as the last major outbreak was 1968 and after WWI it killed more than the war did!”
That is the concern with Bird Flu, which is a real threat. Swine Flu is a second rate disease that has a thankfully much lower “death rate”. The problem is that by throwing so much money and effort at countering swine flu we may not have the resources if Bird flu becomes an issue.
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Dr Mad Foetus,
The reason why we get ‘bird flu’ ‘Spanish flu’ etc is because the flu virus constantly mutates. The virus is very unstable and as you are very obviously aware multiplies rapidly mutating on a regular basis. Its evolutionary cycle is much more rapid than ours and we are very slowly and not always successfully evolving from apes into something allegedly more sophisticated.
This said whilst the form of swine flu we are seeing may not be killing millions it has the potential to mutate into something far more dangerous and therefore cannot be ignored.
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According to the figures on Wikepedia in the USA approx 100 people have died out of 20,000 infected, which works out at 1 per 200 infected. So, if it starts to spread rapidly then there will be a large number of deaths. The death rates are lower in other countries though, in the UK one person has died out of 2,000.
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None of these mutations can be ignored. That doesn’t mean they should be hyped up. However, flu of any type and also common bugs like rotovirus etc can be fatal to some and when all you need to do is take more care of personal hygiene it’s pretty pathetic that such bugs are not being contained better.
My nephew had e-coli recently, it’s common where they live (private water sources). Thankfully he’s a sensible child and he understood that while he showed no symptoms he had to follow very strict hygiene procedures because it could be very dangerous for around him. How come a 6-year old can be trusted to follow very strict handwashing (and using separate towels) procedures but I still see so many ‘grown-ups’ not washing their hands after using the toilet, and others coughing all over people?
It’s time the States really did some serious advertising (aimed at these filthy morons) teaching common courtesy and hygiene! Make it embarrassing for someone to be seen leaving the toilets without washing their hands, it’s about time. Give us the right by law to verbally have a go at someone who coughs in our face, without our verbal attack being seen as provocation (should the person retaliate physically).
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That Jersey would get some Swine Flu cases was inevitable but there’s no need to go over the top. In Scotland they no longer give Tamiflu to contacts who don’t have flu symptons.
All this front page publicity makes it look as if we have an epidemic now – not in the Autumn as we have been told by the M.O.H Rosemary Geller.
We all know what happens when the UK media get hold of a Jersey story and, before we know it, holidaymakers will steer clear of Jersey because they’ll be afraid of catching swine flu.
LIBRA
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