NO ONE, not even our health professionals, can forecast whether the Island will be hit by a second and more severe wave of swine flu as we move towards winter.

This pattern of infection is certainly regarded as a possibility, but, to date, swine flu has not proved to be the massive global scourge that was feared when it first emerged in Mexico.

But uncertainty can be no concern for complacency. This latest strain of flu may be a killer only in exceptional circumstances, but it is nevertheless a serious illness which leads to unpleasant consequences for individuals. Moreover, we should not lose sight of the fact that a new wave of infection on a major scale would have serious economic consequences.

There can, therefore, be no criticism of the decision, announced in the States by Treasury Minister Philip Ozouf, to seek funding of up to £5.5 million to cope with a full-scale flu emergency. Islanders must be afforded every level of protection that is available.

That said, just as it is impossible to forecast with accuracy the pattern that the pandemic is likely to follow as the seasons change, there is uncertainty about the best preventative and ameliorative measures that can be used to combat swine flu.

For example, the drug Tamiflu, of which the Island has substantial stocks, was initially held to be a means of easing symptoms and lessening the chances of passing on infection, but it has emerged that its side effects can sometimes be worse than the condition being treated.

Nevertheless, there now appears to be general agreement that a new, specific vaccine has an important role to play in helping to control any future outbreaks. In the light of this, steps are quite rightly being taken to ensure that Islanders are vaccinated.

We are fortunate that in spite of the recession, sufficient money is available to meet expected costs. We are also fortunate that emergency powers enshrined in the Public Finances Law allow an appropriately prompt response.

But we are less fortunate in respect of the timing of any vaccination programme. In spite of the preparations made to counter swine flu, we could fall victim to the sheer unpredictability of the virus.

It is, alas, still possible that the illness will make a significant adverse impact here if a fresh outbreak occurs sooner rather than later, emerging before stocks of vaccine have arrived and mass vaccination can be launched.