SO what shall I write about this week, I asked my wife? I don’t know, but try to be positive, came the prompt reply.

Now that rather hurt, because I thought that I was always positive. But perhaps I should try even harder.

It was with that in mind that I stumbled upon the States of Jersey Annual Performance Report for 2008, which has just been published. At 100 pages it is crammed full of detail about how the States have performed against targets in many aspects of Island life, ranging from the incidence of smoking to mortality rates for suicide (which might be considered the same thing).

This report was good news for my efforts to be more positive, because it is awash with green ink. That indicates that States departments are on track in meeting the targets set in the Strategic Plan. There were also quite a few amber ‘slightly off track’ symbols, but very few red ‘causes for concern’.

However, slipping back into my pre-positive mode for a while, I had to question the rather simplistic way in which this States scorecard is kept. I fully appreciate that a simple traffic light system can make it easier for people to understand and appreciate the undoubted achievements of the States, but it is not very accurate. Indeed, there are very many actions that have been given the green light which are frankly undeserved. That’s because some of these areas are very complex and the issues are not black and white, or even green, amber and red.

For example, how can you give a green light approval to the attempts to improve the availability of skills in the Island? Yes, a ‘skills executive’ has been established, which might indicate that the policy is on track, but that’s not the same as saying that the skills policy is actually working.

There is no evidence, and certainly no published benchmarks, to show that this is the case. In fact, I for one don’t know what the skills executive actually does.

A green light in this area might suggest that we can sit back because it’s all working out very nicely, but I reckon that that green should really be amber.

The problem with reports like this is that they are often coloured by the unintended prejudices of whoever writes them (a bit like journalism, really). They can be useful when there are clear and independently verified benchmarks, but they are nowhere near as helpful when they simply reflect the opinion of the report writer or even the States department that is the subject of the report. I’m not suggesting anything underhand here, just an inevitable bias.

But of course, there can’t be much bias involved in those items which get the red light. If a report that bends over backwards to be positive still gives a red light to performances, then there really is ‘cause for concern’.

However, in the 100 pages of statistics, only three items get the red warning. The worst is probably the lack of progress in persuading people to make provision for their retirement. In surveys, 68 per cent of people say they don’t think they have a good private pension, and 63 per cent don’t consider that they have a good occupational pension scheme.

This has to change if the taxpayer isn’t going to face an even bigger bill for the retired, so a red light is justified.

The second red light is given for the failure to reduce mortality rates from suicide, which is considerably higher than the UK average. The third red light problem is the higher incidence of fire and fire injury in Jersey compared to Guernsey, the Isle of Wight or the south-west of England.

Important as these issues are, the report also highlights other policies where the performance by the States has been less than stellar (there goes my positive attitude).

An old hobby horse of mine is the need to promote a diversified economy, so I’m pretty surprised that there are a series of green lights for the Economic Development department in this area. Yes, of course a lot of progress has been made and the department may well be on track, but if these traffic lights are trying to indicate the level of performance, there is not much evidence yet that it deserves a green.

That’s the problem of having to be put in one of only three categories. For example, under the policy of diversifying the economy through a wider distribution of the workforce, the department gets a green. That’s because the report says: ‘The finance sector continues to grow as a proportion of the economy, while also continuing to diversify, and it now comprises 25 per cent of private-sector employment. Construction also continues to grow, as does private-sector education and health services, and fulfilment.’

Yes that’s right, the economy does continue to grow, but this ignores the confused policy regarding fulfilment, and it certainly doesn’t indicate any significant diversification.

The report goes on to point out that economic activity in Jersey has become slightly less focused on financial services in the past seven years. ‘Slightly’ is certainly the word. Finance accounted for 54 per cent of gross value added in 2000. The figures for 2008, which were recently published, show that finance contributed 53.4 per cent of GVA. So how can the States get a green light for their performance in diversifying the economy?

Now I’m not saying that it’s easy to change the way the Island earns its living, particularly as the new policies being adopted by the Economic Development department have only recently been introduced. But there is really no point in making out that the performance is better than it actually is.

But let’s get back to a positive attitude. Among the mass of statistics, is the revelation that the weather forecasts are becoming more accurate. In the past four years the combined accuracy of all forecasts has gone up from 82 per cent to 89 per cent, although how they measure whether their predictions of cloudy patches and scattered rain are accurate beats me. But assuming that the same criteria is used over time, that does show progress.

And remembering my wife’s comment, I can finish on a very positive note. All the information in the performance report confirms that we are very lucky to be living in Jersey, where the government is tackling all the issues that affect our standard of life. That is not something that can be taken for granted.
Peter Body is editor of Business Brief magazine