WE in the West are fortunate that improving standards of living and increasingly sophisticated health care mean that average life expectancy has risen and can be expected to continue rising.

Whereas at the beginning of the last century very few lived to enjoy long and healthy retirements, a great many people now live on into their 80s and beyond.

A majority of Islanders no doubt look favourably on the idea of greater longevity and more time spent in retirement. However, most will also be aware that the phenomenon usually called the ageing society also poses major problems. These problems, moreover, must be recognised before they are upon us and policies devised to cope with the shifting balance of our population’s age profile.

The key problem can be described by reference to a single projected statistic. Within the next 30 years it is likely that the number of elderly Islanders will exceed the number of younger people in work and paying taxes.

Somehow the revenue that the exchequer is able to collect will have to pay not only for the social and health services that we currently expect but also for the increased burden of the elderly, many of whom will be unwell or infirm towards the end of their lives.

Fortunately, work is under way – in the shape of a Social Security department discussion paper – to analyse the likely impact of the ageing society and to set out the options that will be available to maintain standards of service and care not only for the aged, but across the board.

Less happily, there are unlikely to be any easy answers to the looming problems. In all probability, Islanders in employment will find themselves paying more tax in one form or another if standards are to be maintained, let alone improved.

In addition, the difficult issue of long-term care for those unable to look after themselves will have to be addressed.

But the social dilemmas of the coming decades will not be solved solely by taxing the younger members of the community more heavily. There must also be structural changes in the sphere of employment. The standard age of retirement, for example, might well have to be raised.

Also, there is manifest good sense in the view, expressed by Chief Minister Terry Le Sueur, that those who elect to work on after retirement age should be encouraged to do so.