GIVEN restrictions on public sector pay – which included a freeze last year – it was widely predicted that Jersey would suffer a winter of industrial discontent.

In the event, it seems that we are facing a spring of discontent, but the forces impelling two pay groups, teachers and firefighters, towards either strike or work-to-rule action remain the same.

In addition, Chief Minister Terry Le Sueur and the rest of the Council of Ministers are as implacable as ever, insisting that there will be no backing down over the decision to offer no pay increase for 2009.

That said, the picture has changed to some extent, in other respects. The Island’s public sector white collar workers have agreed to accept two per cent increases for this year and next – which has undoubtedly taken some of the heat out of the industrial relations scene. In addition, although Senator Le Sueur is adamant that no ground will be yielded on last year’s freeze, there is dialogue over other issues, notably the terms and conditions of the teachers and the firefighters.

But while it is still true that both discontented pay groups have much to lose in terms of public respect if they finally decide on action and, in all probability, very little to gain, there will be some public sympathy for the union observations reported today. Even those who feel that industrial action must be rejected as a tactic because of the collateral damage it inflicts on entirely innocent parties might be prepared to acknowledge that the teachers and firefighters are victims of factors well beyond their control.

As Ron Clooney, national executive of the NASUWT, now the Island’s largest teaching union, points out, the economic circumstances which have led not only teachers but many other employees in the public and private sectors to feel the pinch are none of their making.

There is logic in that assertion, but there is a deeper logic in the principle that two wrongs are never going to make a right. If talking fails to resolve the present disputes and action by either group is launched, the depth of the Island’s economic difficulties will only be increased.

In a fair world, rogue bankers, external agencies that have forced us into making fiscal changes and those who have been profligate with public money should be facing the music. As it is – rather than as it ought to be – it is incumbent on all of us to be realistic and pursue those courses which lead not to further trouble but to recovery.