An election platform where promises will not be enough

Saturday 22nd May 2010, 3:00PM BST.

AS the list of candidates for the forthcoming election for one Senatorial place becomes ever longer, what should we be asking the prospective politician to do, as our elected representative?

Apart from listening to what the people want, and actually doing something about it, a number of important topics have been aired this week which might serve to exercise the minds of the waiting candidates.

Not least is the growing problem of unemployment, and with it the poverty that is beginning to strain the resources of the Citizens’ Advice Bureau. This is probably one of the only places where people can go if they fall on hard times but are not eligible to claim any States benefit. At the moment that seems to apply to a growing number of people who have come to the Island to work, but because of the recession find themselves unable to secure employment.

Unlike in the UK, where state resources seem to be easy to obtain, there is no fallback for those who are not residentially qualified.

Another political hot potato is the growing violence on our streets. It seems that almost every week another vicious assault comes to light, mainly fuelled by alcohol and/or drug use. Up to now the policies put in place to try to address the use and abuse of alcohol seem to be making little or no difference to the number of incidents of violent assault. A growing number of the offenders are below the age that they are deemed to be legally responsible enough to be named.

There’s also the problem of paying for the services that are needed by an ever-increasing population (and we could do with some accurate and updated censorship figures), not least the increase in traffic, housing requirements and pressure on the Education and Health services.

As the States budget faces the prospect of a sizeable deficit, the prospective candidates need to be armed with good ideas not only about how to save money, but how to maintain essential services at a good standard without the gold-plated accessories we have become accustomed to.

No doubt we will hear many and varied promises from those to take to the platform. Unfortunately promises will not be sufficient this time around.

Car parks for culture vultures
CAR parks have been in focus recently, not least because artist Ian Rolls has created a new look that has attracted considerable attention.

Apparently the new look has been inspired by a piece of artwork – and although I haven’t seen the fascia of the Kensington Place car park in real life, from the photographs it looks rather impressive.

Another idea that has been proposed over the past few months also appeals to me – to cloak the car parks in a kind of hanging garden, thereby making them easier on the eye.

Perhaps we could host a international competition for the disguise of car parks? We are certainly going to have enough of them to go around, if current building developments get planning approval.

In fact we would make Jersey an international focus for the parking of motorised vehicles and turn our monstrosities into major futuristic tourist attractions.

Imagine the postcards featuring the fantastic tropical car parks of St Helier. I’m not sure which of the suggested tourism ‘tribes’ (those suggested in the latest Jersey Tourism marketing campaign) they would accommodate, though – style gurus, maybe?

Or perhaps the ‘cool actives’ might like to practise their climbing skills on the exterior walls? Perhaps the ‘soft adventurers’ could try out their four-wheel driving skills around the interior?

Or maybe the ‘culture vultures’ would enjoy meeting the artists and taking screen prints of the zany designs? The possibilities are endless, aren’t they?

House prices down? So why the big surprise?
SHOULD we be surprised that the overall value of residential property in Jersey seems to have gone down by five per cent?

On the one hand, yes, given that in the UK (where, after all, they have to pay similar mortgage interest rates) the value of properties has actually been rising since spring last year, with an annual increase overall of eight per cent.

On the other hand, no, because Jersey is a very different market and because the Island’s economy traditionally lags behind the UK by around 18 months. In addition, it seems to be generally accepted that house prices have been artificially inflated for months by over-eager estate agents, with the actual selling prices nowhere near as high as the initial asking prices.

There are other factors, too, which the UK has not had to take into account. Since the beginning of this year sales of share transfer properties in Jersey have been subject to stamp duty, for the first time. These properties are mainly at the lower end of the market and are mainly flats.

Buyers who are likely to be already struggling to raise the deposit and mortgage now have to find the additional funds to pay the stamp duty. So it is no wonder at all that the big prize for the largest fall in values over the past few months goes to two-bedroom flats, which have lost value by ten per cent.

And there’s more. According to the quarterly house price report issued by the States Statistics Unit the higher average prices we’ve been seeing over the past couple of years have been ‘driven somewhat by new developments coming onto the market’.

In other words the developers have been pushing up the purchase price artificially and taken everything else along with them. Now that the market is flooded they need to get rid of all these new properties and the prices are beginning to fall in line with what people can afford to pay.

The most interesting question now is what do the statisticians predict will be happening in the medium to longer term? Are we heading for a continuing downward spiral leading to negative equity, where the value of the property is less than the original purchase price?

The fact is that from mid-2008 onwards the number of total house sales in the Island going through Royal Court (so not including share transfer properties) has fallen by between 50 and 100 properties per quarter. Sometimes more. For instance, in the third quarter of 2007, a high of 283 sales were recorded. In the third quarter of 2008 it was down to 188. In the same quarter last year only 150 sales were recorded.

So when estate agents tell us that things are looking up, we are right to be a little sceptical. You can do a lot with statistics. But these ones look pretty kosher to me.

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