THE Island’s population continues to rise inexorably, but the governmental line is that this is all well and good.

Indeed, Chief Minister Terry Le Sueur has said that the figure of 92,500 recorded at the end of last year was in accordance with the population policy that is now an established element of States strategy.

In spite of this assertion, many Islanders will have seen the headline figure and the additional statistic pointing to net growth of 600 in 2009 and wondered whether this can possibly be sustainable.

The increase is part of ministers’ drive to ensure that the Island has a workforce capable of productivity that matches needs as the age profile of the community changes, but the potential impact of so many new residents on infrastructure and the environment is frightening.

It is all very well for statisticians to point out that the present population density amounts to no more than four people per football-field-size area, but we must also consider the direction in which we are heading.

For example, if population trends follow the track envisaged in present policies, by the time there is any levelling – in 2020 – there will be roughly twice as many people living here as at the end of the Occupation.

It will also be the case that those permitted to settle here to help drive the economy will themselves eventually become part of the problem. When they reach retirement age they will cease to be economically productive and will instead become an additional drain on health and social services. By that time, Islanders might well be wondering why greater efforts were not made to train local people for essential jobs, rather than importing skills from the UK and elsewhere.

All this points to a failure of imagination on the part of our policy makers. It appears that they are willing to settle for a medium-term fix – with inevitable extra pressure on the quality of life and services – in the hope that the long-term picture will in some mysterious way sort itself out.

Meanwhile, it is entirely possible that unpleasant surprises are in store. Next year will see the first full Census since 2001, after which it was decided that running totals would be used to keep tabs on population for the next ten-year period.

Few will be surprised if next year’s count reveals that more people live here than present estimates suggest and that we are in deeper and more dangerous waters than we currently imagine.