IHATE this job. I seem to be criticising all of the time. And that’s only when I’m not moaning about people who I generally like and respect and who, in most cases, are doing a good job.

Perhaps one day everything will be perfect and I’ll be able to write a column full of positive sentiments and praise. It will probably be even more boring than my normal critical observations, but that would be a small price to pay for perfection.
But in the meantime, we have to live in the real world.

In a Jersey context that real world is pretty good. There are a few economic problems that are hardly unexpected in the circumstances. But they are relatively minor compared to just about anywhere else. Who would prefer to live in Greece at the moment?

There are even the seeds of some social problems due to a widening wealth gap and the strains of shifting the tax burden, but the Island is well known for its caring attitude and I can’t see us letting this get out of hand.

But we do have problems and there’s no point in ignoring them. Indeed perhaps the biggest problem of all is assuming that everything is under control, and it’s inevitable that we will soon be back on track economically and socially. It’s not inevitable, and there are some fairly significant challenges that need to be faced in the meantime.

To be fair to our political leaders these challenges are being faced, or at least most of them are. However in some cases the solutions are too little or too late, or both, although on one major issue – States spending – the solution has gone too far and too fast.

Major cuts to public spending will certainly do nothing to help put the economy back on track, and although our problems are insignificant by comparison, other jurisdictions are busy injecting more money into their economies. We’ve rather shot our bolt by using up all our stimulus money perhaps rather too hastily. We’re certainly not out of the woods yet, so a little extra stimulus now might help boost the economy rather than having to wait a couple of years for a new economic growth strategy to have an impact.

Our economic performance also underscores one of the current weaknesses of government in Jersey. The island is small and should therefore be nimble. Unfortunately we seem to have lost the knack of grasping opportunities quickly.
This has contributed to our economic woes, and perhaps made the fall-out from global problems more severe than they need be. Perhaps the economy could do with a health check and a new direction. In other words, a Plan B.

This may be needed particularly as the finance industry, which was already slowing down, has inevitably taken quite a big hit in the recession. Yet the accepted view appears to be that it will all return to normal soon and we can all start raking in the wealth again. But what happens if the finance sector doesn’t return to ‘normal’? What happens if the banks have to devise a new business model that excludes or at least diminishes the importance of having an offshore presence? There will always be a need for offshore centres, but perhaps the need will not be so pressing in future.

Jersey is particularly vulnerable because it not only relies on one industry – financial services – it relies heavily on one aspect of that industry – banking – and it even relies on just one part of the banking industry – upstreaming deposits collected from around the world. That is suffering horribly because of low interest rates, which is the main reason the economic contribution of the finance sector has fallen 28% in three years.

Guernsey, where the economy has not suffered to the same extent, is not so reliant on any one aspect of financial services. Its whole economy is slightly more diversified and its finance industry is also more diversified. The performance of its economy reflects this. The contrast between Jersey’s current economic performance and that of the Isle of Man is even greater.

Yet our leaders appears to carry on as though there was nothing they could do about it. It is undoubtedly true that they can’t do much about interest rates (well they could, but that is too radical an option for conservative Jersey). They might not even be able to do much about how the banks in the Island make a living. In which case we shouldn’t assume that the banks will save our bacon in the future. Perhaps they will and perhaps they won’t. But it would be good to have a Plan B just in case.

It may be that the much anticipated economic growth strategy will produce a Plan B, but the signs are not good. I haven’t heard a good word said about the Economic Development Department’s paper on economic growth, but at least it should spark a serious debate about our choices.

There are not as many options as some politicians would have us believe, but there is certainly much more we could do to devise, and more importantly, implement growth policies for the economy. Certainly success will not depend on the number of words written about the subject.

Another part of the problem might be that whereas cynical journalists are always looking for the holes in an argument or why things could go wrong, many in Jersey are too quick to believe they have the solution.

The Zero-10 kerfuffle is a case in point. After a lot of negotiating, amendments and lobbying, the EU authorities have accepted that our tax structure is not harmful. Island experts could hardly contain their glee when the announcement was made. Zero-10 had been saved, so we can carry on as before, they said. Well apart from the fact that it hasn’t yet been given the OK by Ecofin ministers, it would be a brave man who claimed that this was the end of the matter.

Jersey’s approach in arguing about the technicalities and legal niceties of Zero-10 has paid off because we had a good case. The Isle of Man adopted a similar strategy, but they are perhaps slightly less triumphant. Their treasury minister has made it clear that she appreciated the argument was not really about tax law but about politics. So Zero-10 might have had a reprieve, but it wouldn’t be wise to rely upon it over the medium to long term. Perhaps another Plan B is needed just in case.

Peter Body is the editor of Business Brief magazine